River Flood Warning 34, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
STRATUS HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO A LACK OF A
LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO
THE LOW TEENS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL
AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE REGION IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP IN AND ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING BACK
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN SHOW UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING UP
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MAY HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL BREAK UP/MOVE OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND NIGHT. AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THESE MAY
AFFECT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
517 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-081030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
517 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011 /417 AM MDT SUN AUG 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MOHR