River Flood Warning 16, NWS Aberdeen, SD

591 
WGUS83 KABR 271422
FLSABR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTH 
DAKOTA...

  ELM RIVER NEAR WESTPORT

.THE FOLLOWING RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT 
THE FORECASTS. 

THE ELM RIVER NEAR WESTPORT HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS LOCATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS. NEVER DRIVE 
ACROSS A FLOODED ROAD...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR...THEN LEFT CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

&&

SDC013-271452-
/O.CAN.KABR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110327T1900Z/
/WESS2.1.ER.110326T1230Z.110327T0230Z.110327T0507Z.UU/
922 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  ELM RIVER NEAR WESTPORT
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.3 FEET...
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET...
* AT 14.0 FEET...THE COUNTY ROAD EAST OF WESTPORT BECOMES 
  IMPASSABLE.

$$



&& 

LOCATION FLOOD  LATEST OBSERVED   MAXIMUM FORECAST   RECENT OBSERVED
         STAGE  STAGE  TIME       STAGE   TIME       CREST TIME



ELM RIVER
WESS2    14.0   13.27 SUN 9 AM    12.8  SUN 1 PM      M

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
PCPN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN H7 LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. VARIOUS
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY 18Z. HOWEVER A PERSIST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL RESULT IN OFF AND ON CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PCPN CHANCES
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS...A
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE EASTERN CWA PCPN FREE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ASIDE FROM TODAY'S
STORM SYSTEM...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD WILL
LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES...FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

A QUICK NOTE ABOUT HIGH TEMPERATURES...THE ADJMAV HAS HAD A WARM
BIAS OF 4 TO 7 DEGREES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...THIS FORECASTER HAS BEEN
USING A BLEND OF THE EC BIAS CORRECTED AND CONSENSUS AMONG ALL
MODELS WHEN FORECASTING HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SOMEWHAT BLOCKY MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BREAKDOWN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THAT TIME MEAN RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. BUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGING MAY NOT
LAST LONG WITH A RETURN TO PROGRESSIVE FLOW FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
ENERGY COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UNTIL THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN OCCURS...ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE IN NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS. A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD
ALSO BRING SOME PCPN TO THE REGION...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IT
SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADED BACK TOWARD CLIMO AND THE END OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS/VSBYS WILL VARY FROM MVFR/IFR AT BOTH KMBG/KPIR THROUGH TODAY
DUE TO SNOWFALL. FURTHER EAST KABR/KATY HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND THUS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
     FOR JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
414 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-270915-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
414 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011 /314 AM MDT SAT MAR 26 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-270915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
414 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SD