Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

148 
WWUS83 KABR 162037
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
337 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2011

SDZ268-162145-
/O.CAN.KABR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110517T0000Z/
UPPER CHEYENNE-
237 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE ZONE 268...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WEST RIVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S WILL BRING A
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. AREAS OF FROST LOOK LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. FROST ADVISORY LOOKS FINE. UPDATED FORECAST
TO MAKE SOME SMALL CHANGES.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
RATHER DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SO TEMPS SHOULD FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECTING MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS SNEAKING INTO THE LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THAT 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. ON
MONDAY THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
TIGHTENS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT. BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSOURI TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY
SMALL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHEN TO START
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR EAST RIVER LOCATIONS. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATING AREAS EAST OF THE MO RIVER WILL HAVE A DRY
LAYER NEAR H85 THAT MAY NOT SATURATE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. OTHER
THAN THAT...MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER REGARDING A WET PERIOD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH ERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WY/SD BORDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SLOW
MOVING FEATURE WILL DRAW UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MID
AND UPPER LEVEL UVV ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW TO
PRODUCE REDEVELOPING BANDS OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
ESTIMATING RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY PERIOD IN THE 2.0-3.5 INCH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIP. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN MOST LOCATION NEAR 70 AND WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK-WALWORTH.

MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
352 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2011

SDZ003-004-009-015-170900-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-WALWORTH-DEWEY-
352 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2011 /252 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051-170900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-EDMUNDS-DAY-
POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-
SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
352 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2011 /252 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CONNELLY