Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION/FIRE SECTIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2011

...WINTER STORM TARGETING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE
AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS MORE DEEPLY INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. SHORTWAVES AND VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE INTO THIS TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...THEN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CROSS NM SOMETIME MONDAY. MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL DEEPEN TO ABOVE 10K FEET TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS THEN LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO
MONDAY BEFORE THE FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE WEST AS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY CROSSES. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD
AIR...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE LONG DWELL TIME OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THUS...A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY ALSO RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IF THE
COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS WHEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...SANDIAS...SANTA FE METRO AREA...LOWER CHAMA RIVER
VALLEY...UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40 ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. FURTHER...A STRONG BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NM TONIGHT WITH A STRONG EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS. MET MOS
SUGGESTS 35 KNOTS SUSTAINED WIND AT THE SUNPORT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THE GFS MOS IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. THE FORCING
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FOR AT LEAST 45 MPH EAST CANYON WIND
GUSTS IN THE ABQ METRO AREA.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN
MOST LOCATIONS...AND THIS COULD CATCH SOME AMBITIOUS GARDENERS OFF
GUARD. TENDER VEGETATION WILL BE AT RISK OF FREEZING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK...A DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ESTABLISH. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF NM THROUGH WED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR TWO EJECT
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS. A DEEPER
TROUGH MAY DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS NE NM AROUND THURSDAY. AFTER
WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS COOLING TEMPERATURES AGAIN
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM MAY ALSO DELIVER SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.

EXPECT AN UPDATE TO THE CCF BY 4 AM BECAUSE WE ARE STILL TWEAKING
POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AFTER THE TONIGHT PERIOD. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 18 HRS...
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CONCERN. A SFC FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH
INTO THE ERN PLAINS...BRINGING N/NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS THEN
RETREATS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL IMPACT KCAO
AND KTCC AND POSSIBLY KCVN/KCVS BRIEFLY. MEANWHILE...FURTHER WEST
INTO WRN/CENTRAL NM...EXPECT GUSTY WLY WINDS OVER THE SRN MTS AND
LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTS. SPEEDS OF 20-25G35KTS WILL BE COMMON. SOME
FIRES PER THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS
THE WC/SW MTS TODAY. AFTER 00Z/SUN...EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
FRONT TO RACE S/W AND SQUEEZE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTS. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A VERY STRONG CANYON WIND STARTING AT KSKX AROUND 06Z...
THEN KABQ AROUND 10Z. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
FOR THE INTERNATIONAL SUNPORT. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL FORM
AFTER 03Z/SUN ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...IMPACTING KRTN/
KAXX/KLVS. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500-8000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
CRATER TO 5000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT MDT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. DPORTER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
UPPER GILA REGION...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IMMEDIATELY LEE OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY. THEREAFTER...A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD RESULT IN WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...ALONG
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPS STATEWIDE...PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NE/EC PLAINS. THIS SHOULD SHIFT
INTO CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES BEFORE RETREATING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MEANWHILE...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE
SRN MOUNTAINS AND LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MIN HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT OF 1-3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. COVERAGE IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
HEADLINE...HOWEVER WILL MENTION CONCERN IN RESPECTIVE PRODUCTS. THE
REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES COUPLED WITH A
HIGH HAINES...EXCLUDING THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH/WEST THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS A SUBSTANTIAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE...BRINGING GOOD RECOVERIES FOR MOST AREAS...
EXCLUDING THE WC/SW ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT IMPACT. WINDS IN
ITS WAKE WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR CANYONS...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MIGRATE FROM
THE GREAT BASIN AND INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING WETTING PRECIPITATION TO THE NC/NE ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO
MON WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 10-25 DEGREES COOLER ON SAT WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING ON
SUNDAY. MOST LOCALES ON SUNDAY WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES BELOW EARLY MAY
NORMALS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL ASSIST IN HUMIDITIES AND THE THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION RATES WILL TAKE A HIT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MUCH OF NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY
OR TWO ABOVE THE POOR RANGE.

THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE ERN PARTS OF THE STATE THUR. MIN HUMIDITIES
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 60 PERCENT FROM W-E RESPECTIVELY...
BECOMING 10 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TUE/WED WITH IMPROVED VALUES OVER THE
ERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN CHECK TO CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWING THREATS. DPORTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  24  50  23 /   0   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  49  17  41  20 /   0  20  20  20
CUBA............................  51  18  43  24 /   0  20  30  30
GALLUP..........................  54  15  50  17 /   0   5   0  20
EL MORRO........................  56  17  49  16 /   0   5   5  20
GRANTS..........................  59  18  51  25 /   0   5  10  30
QUEMADO.........................  64  23  51  23 /   0   5   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  75  34  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  45  20  33  18 /   0  40  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  26  39  24 /   0  20  40  40
PECOS...........................  58  28  37  21 /   0  40  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  23  35  19 /   5  50  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  40  23  27  16 /  10  70  60  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  25  29  17 /  10  90  60  50
TAOS............................  54  29  39  21 /   0  50  30  30
MORA............................  55  27  35  19 /   5  90  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  62  30  44  27 /   0  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  58  29  43  24 /   0  20  40  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  33  45  25 /   0  20  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  35  48  29 /   0  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  41  52  34 /   0   5  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  38  52  32 /   0   5  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  34  50  31 /   0  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  70  36  53  32 /   0   5  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  35  49  30 /   0  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  77  42  54  33 /   0   5   0  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  28  43  25 /   0  20  30  50
TIJERAS.........................  62  32  47  26 /   0  10  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  64  32  45  23 /   0  20  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  62  28  41  21 /   0  30  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  38  48  26 /   0   5  30  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  73  45  50  34 /   0   5  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  66  37  46  28 /   0   5  10  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  23  35  19 /  20 100  60  40
RATON...........................  59  29  37  23 /  10  90  50  30
SPRINGER........................  63  29  37  25 /   5  80  40  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  59  26  36  22 /   5  60  60  50
CLAYTON.........................  57  30  42  27 /  10  70  40  20
ROY.............................  62  28  40  26 /   5  70  40  30
CONCHAS.........................  71  36  49  30 /   5  50  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  71  39  49  30 /   0  40  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  72  37  49  29 /   5  50  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  73  38  49  31 /   5  30  10  10
PORTALES........................  76  39  51  30 /   0  20  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  42  52  29 /   0  30  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  85  48  55  37 /   0  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  79  44  51  33 /   0   5  10  30
ELK.............................  73  42  49  30 /   0   5  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>529.

&&

44/46

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>