Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
243 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLY MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE 2011 MONSOON SEASON. A WELL DEFINED MCV OVER
SE ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EJECTING NE TOWARD SW NM...PROVIDING LIFT
WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NM. ANOTHER SMALLER
VORT CENTER OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING IS LIFTING
NNE TOWARD THE MANZANOS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CREATING NMRS
STORMS OVER THAT AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED ON THE 18Z
LAPS GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL NM COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ADVECT STORM CLUSTERS NORTH TOWARD THE ABQ
METRO AREA THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS HIGHEST POPS
ARE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN...
THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE ALL SHOWING MORE NMRS
CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY ACCORDINGLY CLOSEST TO NAM COVERAGE
PATTERN. PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.0 AND 1.2 INCHES...WEAK STEERING FLOW...
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

BY FRIDAY DRY AIR BEGINS INVADING THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE WHILE A
RIDGE CORE DEVELOPS ALOFT. CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED
THAN THIS WEEK. TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND UP ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
NW CORNER AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PERIOD BTWN SATURDAY AND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY DRY FOR EARLY AUGUST
WITH POP COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY BELOW CLIMO. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL
BE 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE OVERNIGHT
READINGS OUT WEST WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCING MVFR AND 20 TO 30 MINUTES OF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ESPECIALLY
IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. GUP IS THE LIKELY CULPRIT TO BE
IMPACTED BUT FMN...ABQ...SAF AND LVS ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR AT
LEAST SHORT DURATION MVFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KT
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. TCC SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME SORT OF VICINITY SHOWERS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
THERE. A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
REDUCING CIGS AND VIS AT TIMES.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. MODELS
STILL INDICATE A DRYING/WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY STARTING ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SIGNIFICANT SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THE REST OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE SOME. STORMS WILL REMAIN SLOW MOVING BOTH REST OF TODAY AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF ANY ONE
SPOT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVING WETTING RAIN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PORTION OF THE UPPER HIGH TO SET UP
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. DUE TO A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO
HALF...A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH IN AND PROVIDING
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND ULTIMATELY HUMIDITY VALUES THERE. EXPECT SOME
TEEN HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
EASTERN AREAS WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY AND HOT AND EXPECT TEENS THERE AS
WELL.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN RIDGES
WHERE SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE...SHOULD BE A TAD
COOLER. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SUCH AS NEAR AND SOUTH OF DATIL. MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LAS CONCHAS BURN SCAR.

THE DRIER AND WARMER TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SOUTH BY A
BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MODELS
CONTINUE TO HIT TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE GROWS. STILL
GOING WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THAT SCENARIO NEXT WEEK.
HUMIDITIES NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME RECYCLED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  94  62  95 /  30  30  10  10
DULCE...........................  53  86  51  89 /  40  40  20  20
CUBA............................  56  87  55  90 /  60  50  20  20
GALLUP..........................  56  86  54  88 /  40  40  20  20
EL MORRO........................  51  80  52  83 /  50  60  30  20
GRANTS..........................  56  85  56  90 /  60  50  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  56  83  56  84 /  60  60  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  90  61  92 /  40  30  20  20
CHAMA...........................  50  77  48  81 /  50  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  81  61  84 /  60  60  30  30
PECOS...........................  56  80  57  86 /  60  50  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  81  52  84 /  60  60  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  49  72  47  75 /  60  60  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  47  74  45  78 /  60  60  40  50
TAOS............................  57  85  55  88 /  50  50  30  30
MORA............................  54  78  54  82 /  60  60  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  59  88  58  92 /  50  50  20  20
SANTA FE........................  60  84  60  89 /  50  50  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  88  61  92 /  50  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  89  64  92 /  60  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  91  69  94 /  60  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  93  66  96 /  60  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  93  65  97 /  60  40  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  93  64  96 /  60  40  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  63  93  63  96 /  60  40  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  68  95  67  96 /  70  30  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  87  60  89 /  60  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  60  89  60  91 /  60  50  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  87  56  91 /  60  40  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  84  60  89 /  60  40  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  64  89  62  90 /  60  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  92  65  94 /  40  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  59  82  58  85 /  40  30  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  58  87  59  89 /  60  40  40  30
RATON...........................  60  93  59  94 /  50  60  40  30
SPRINGER........................  61  91  59  94 /  60  50  40  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  58  85  58  89 /  60  60  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  65  94  66  95 /  40  30  40  20
ROY.............................  64  91  62  92 /  40  30  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  71  97  67  98 /  30  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  70  96  68  96 /  30  20  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  71  99  70 101 /  30  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  97  70  99 /  30  20  20   5
PORTALES........................  71  98  71  99 /  30  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  98  71  99 /  20  20  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  74 100  73 101 /  10  20  20   5
PICACHO.........................  66  95  65  96 /  20  20  20  10
ELK.............................  63  87  61  88 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

NMZ501>540-041215-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
601 AM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER
HOUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRAINAGE PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP IN
LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED BY RAINFALL FROM THE
PASSAGE OF A SUBTROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RECENT
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING IF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 E BOSQUE DEL APACHE  33.82N 106.65W
08/03/2011  M66 MPH          SOCORRO            NM   MESONET

            WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE - STALLION RUNWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1101191

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

NMZ512-518-032215-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
341 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM MDT...

AT 336 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA CIENEGA...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SANTA FE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SANTA FE.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 10611 3565 10585 3544 10605 3553 10624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 208DEG 9KT 3557 10609

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

NMZ519-520-032215-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
344 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VALENCIA AND NORTHERN
SOCORRO COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

AT 344 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VEGUITA...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF
BELEN...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BELEN...JARALES...LOS
TRUJILLOS-GABALDON AND RIO COMMUNITIES.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 195...

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 10701 3471 10669 3443 10668 3438 10697
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 174DEG 8KT 3451 10680

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
427 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

NMZ508-520-524-032300-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
427 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM MDT...

AT 427 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOCORRO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOCORRO...ESCONDIDA...LEMITAR
AND CHAMIZAL.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 160...

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 10702 3422 10674 3393 10678 3393 10700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 179DEG 5KT 3401 10689

MT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
434 PM MDT WED AUG 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             7 NE ALBUQUERQUE        35.19N 106.54W
08/03/2011  E1.00 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1101192

KRW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
435 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

NMZ518-519-521-032300-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
435 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BERNALILLO AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

AT 435 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANDIA HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERNALILLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SANDIA HEIGHTS...TRAMWAY
BOULEVARD NORTH OF MONTGOMERY IN FAR NORTHEAST ALBUQUERQUE AND
EXTREME NORTHERN BERNALILLO AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 10653 3532 10625 3510 10639 3511 10652
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 186DEG 11KT 3521 10646