Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AZ HAS
PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LIFT WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE FOR NMRS STORMS AND
LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL OVER WESTERN NM. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/EURO/CANADIAN
AND SPC/NSSL HIRES MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH INTO THE NW MTS AND PLATEAU...THUS HAVE PLACED FOCUS FOR
NMRS STORMS WITHIN THIS AREA AND CHANCE/ISOLD POPS ELSEWHERE. THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLIDE NE THRU TUESDAY AND PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AND NE
PLAINS. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...HOWEVER READINGS WILL WARM TO 5 TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER WAVE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND ELONGATE TO
A SHARP TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION
OVER SE COLORADO WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE NE PLAINS.
THIS WILL HELP FOCUS THE BEST COVERAGE FOR STORMS OVER NORTHERN NM
AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...
MODELS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER SW NM...CUTTING OFF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. STORMS WILL STILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM MOISTURE RECYCLING BUT COVERAGE WILL BE NOTICEABLY
LESS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO 594DM
SQUARELY OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS IN AND AROUND THE HIGH
TERRAIN WITH MOISTURE RECYCLING AND TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS IN
PLACE. NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE 100-105F RANGE ONCE AGAIN. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FOR EARLY AUGUST FILTERING INTO
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...ESSENTIALLY REDUCING CHANCES FOR
STORMS DRAMATICALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF NEW MEXICO AS UPPER HIGH CENTER OF CIRCULATION REFORMED OVER
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.  CONSEQUENTLY ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 03Z SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KTCC TO KTCS. WEST
OF THIS LINE...MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA SFC WND GUSTS 35KT UNTIL 03Z. MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL LINGER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
OF NEW MEXICO WHERE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS TEMPORARILY
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO AS THE MAIN UPPER HIGH
CENTER OF CIRCULATION RELOCATED TO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.  WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS PERSISTS...AND
THIS AREA IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN EXIST FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE LATER
THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AS MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
EAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME HIGHER HUMIDITIES
WESTWARD. HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A DRIER POCKET MAY SURVIVE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND EASTWARD OVER DE BACA OR
CHAVES COUNTY.

DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FOUR CORNERS
AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THIS WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING
WEST AND SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  92  65  94 /  50  30  30  30
DULCE...........................  54  87  54  85 /  50  50  40  40
CUBA............................  56  85  57  86 /  50  60  40  50
GALLUP..........................  56  86  57  87 /  60  50  30  40
EL MORRO........................  55  80  53  83 /  60  70  30  50
GRANTS..........................  59  86  58  88 /  60  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  81  56  83 /  50  50  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  62  90  63  92 /  40  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  50  79  52  77 /  50  60  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  82  62  81 /  50  50  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  81  58  80 /  20  30  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  82  52  76 /  30  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  48  72  49  69 /  30  60  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  47  74  48  71 /  30  60  60  60
TAOS............................  52  86  54  80 /  30  40  60  60
MORA............................  54  80  54  76 /  30  40  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  59  89  60  87 /  30  30  50  40
SANTA FE........................  60  85  60  84 /  30  40  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  62  88  63  88 /  30  30  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  90  64  89 /  20  20  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  92  69  91 /  20  20  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  94  68  93 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  94  66  94 /  30  20  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  94  65  92 /  30  20  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  62  93  64  90 /  40  20  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  64  95  65  93 /  30  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  87  60  86 /  20  30  40  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  89  60  88 /  20  20  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  88  57  87 /  10  20  40  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  61  86  61  85 /  10  30  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  90  62  88 /  10  20  30  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  92  64  93 /   5  10  10  30
RUIDOSO.........................  57  83  59  84 /  10  20  10  40
CAPULIN.........................  60  85  59  83 /  30  50  60  60
RATON...........................  61  91  62  88 /  30  40  50  50
SPRINGER........................  61  91  62  89 /  30  30  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  59  86  59  84 /  20  30  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  67  93  67  92 /   5  40  50  40
ROY.............................  64  90  64  89 /  10  30  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  70  97  71  95 /   5  10  40  30
SANTA ROSA......................  67  96  69  94 /   5   5  40  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  71 101  72  99 /   0  10  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  66  99  68  97 /   0   5   5  10
PORTALES........................  68  99  70  98 /   0   5   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  99  71  98 /   0   5  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  68 100  71 101 /   0   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  63  95  64  95 /   0   5   5  20
ELK.............................  59  87  60  88 /   5  10   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508.

&&

GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2011

NMZ501>540-021200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NEW MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER TODAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MILLER AND WALLOW FIRE BURN SCARS IN CATRON COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLFAX AND MORA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
HARDING AND UNION COUNTIES...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2011

NMZ511-020030-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
601 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2011

...MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAS
CONCHAS FIRE...

AT 553 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH BETWEEN LAS CONCHAS AND
EVANS GRIFFIN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST/NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FRIJOLES CANYON
/PORTIONS OF THE DOME ROAD AND HIGHWAY 4 IN RURAL SANDOVAL
COUNTY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN
LOW SPOTS. MODERATELY FAST RUNNING WATER WILL FILL ARROYOS AND
DITCHES IN AND AROUND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAS CONCHAS BURN SCAR.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 10644 3580 10636 3575 10650 3581 10654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 243DEG 7KT 3581 10648

50