Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Albuquerque, NM

044 
WWUS55 KABQ 102230
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
430 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

NMC005-011-041-102300-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110810T2300Z/
DE BACA-ROOSEVELT-CHAVES-
430 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHAVES...WEST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT AND SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 429 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTY...OR ABOUT 22 MILES SOUTH OF
FORT SUMNER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY..
  RURAL CHAVES COUNTY..
  RURAL DE BACA COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 10377 3390 10397 3383 10426 3415 10436
      3430 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 294DEG 18KT 3416 10413

$$


34

156 
WWUS55 KABQ 102247
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
447 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

NMC005-011-041-102300-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110810T2300Z/
DE BACA-ROOSEVELT-CHAVES-
447 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHAVES...WEST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT AND SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 448 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTY...OR ABOUT 27 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORT SUMNER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY..
  RURAL CHAVES COUNTY..
  RURAL DE BACA COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY
BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 10377 3390 10397 3400 10420 3415 10436
      3430 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 297DEG 17KT 3411 10404

$$


34

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RESULTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER THE N.

STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE E HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY THROUGH LAS
VEGAS...CLOVIS AND PORTALES AND IS NEAR CLINES CORNERS. TEMPS ARE
ONLY IN THE 70S IN CLAYTON AND LAS VEGAS AND 80S IN TUCUMCARI AND
RATON. STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT BUT SO FAR ARE PRETTY
WELL BEHAVED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE LOCATED OVER MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
A MODERATE E WIND IS LIKELY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT.

MOST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME DRYING OVER THE N THU AND FRI
AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES S AND WESTERLY FLOW EDGES INTO THE FAR
N. MOST ACTIVE AREAS SHOULD BE ALONG AND S OF INTERSTATE 40 THU
AND ESPECIALLY FRI.

WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT MONSOON BURST AS MOISTURE
SURGES N INTO WRN NM AND A BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE E. THE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS
WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DRY OUT AT LEAST NRN NM NEXT WEEK.
CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGING THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
SQUEEZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. EXPECT A MODEST GAP WIND
AT KABQ/KSAF...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PEAK SPEEDS IS LOW ATTM. WILL
MAINTAIN 15G25KTS AND LET EVENING SHIFT MASSAGE AS NECESSARY. IN THE
MEANTIME...ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WC/SW MTS AND
THE SE QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT
KLVS/KROW. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST A BANK OF STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY IMPACT KLVS/KTCC AND HAVE ADDED SCT015-025
PLACEHOLDERS ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. DPORTER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASED HUMIDITIES OVER THE AREA WITH THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
IN THE NORTHWEST/CENTRAL VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ERUPTED ON
THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE WRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPEARS THE BEST HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE IN THE
NE/EC PLAINS...WHERE SOME STRATUS COULD ALSO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT/MODEST GAP
WIND WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE QUADRANT OF NM THURSDAY...
WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS LOCALES ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WETTING FOOTPRINTS
SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. SOME DRYING APPEARS TO BE SCHEDULED OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
POSED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS BY EVENING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A DOWNTREND/UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES IN THE NW AND ERN PLAINS
RESPECTIVELY. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
NORTHWEST.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT THE UPR HIGH TO REMAIN CENTERED IN
THE NEW MEXICO REGION. EXPECT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE TO
PUSH INTO ERN ARIZONA AND POSSIBLY WRN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL RECHARGE THE LOWER LEVELS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
CENTRAL/ERN NEW MEXICO. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT TO RETURN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SLOW MOVEMENT TO
THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASED COVERAGE COULD ALLOW FOR A HIGHER THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AT BURN SCARS. COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES/HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. DPORTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  94  59  94 /  10  10  10   5
DULCE...........................  53  88  48  90 /  20  20  20   5
CUBA............................  55  86  54  88 /  20  30  20  10
GALLUP..........................  58  87  55  88 /  20  30  30  20
EL MORRO........................  54  81  50  84 /  30  40  40  30
GRANTS..........................  57  87  54  89 /  30  30  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  57  82  55  84 /  30  40  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  63  90  62  91 /  20  30  20  20
CHAMA...........................  50  80  48  83 /  20  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  83  61  86 /  20  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  83  57  86 /  30  40  40  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  82  49  85 /  20  30  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  47  73  46  76 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  47  75  48  79 /  30  40  20  20
TAOS............................  52  86  53  89 /  20  20  20  10
MORA............................  52  80  52  83 /  40  40  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  59  90  57  93 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  60  87  59  89 /  20  30  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  63  90  61  92 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  90  67  93 /  20  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  92  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  94  66  96 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  94  66  95 /  20  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  94  63  96 /  20  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  64  94  64  95 /  20  20  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  67  95  65  95 /  20  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  90  61  93 /  30  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  60  90  60  93 /  20  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  87  57  90 /  20  30  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  61  84  60  88 /  30  30  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  88  62  90 /  20  30  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  68  91  65  92 /  20  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  60  81  58  81 /  30  40  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  55  85  57  87 /  40  30  30  20
RATON...........................  57  91  56  92 /  40  30  30  20
SPRINGER........................  59  90  58  93 /  40  30  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  86  57  89 /  40  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  61  89  64  92 /  40  20  30  20
ROY.............................  62  89  62  90 /  40  30  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  94  69  96 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  68  93  68  96 /  30  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  95  69  98 /  30  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  67  93  68  96 /  30  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  68  94  68  96 /  30  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  96  70  97 /  30  30  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  73 100  72 100 /  20  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  66  92  64  93 /  20  30  30  20
ELK.............................  62  86  60  86 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

40/46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
619 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

NMZ501>540-111200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
619 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER RECENT FIRE BURN SCARS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY OVER FIRE BURN SCARS. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

NMZ537-102200-
DE BACA COUNTY-
325 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DE BACA COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM MDT...

AT 324 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT SUMNER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HIGHWAY 20 SOUTH OF FORT
SUMNER.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 10408 3414 10427 3436 10454 3450 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 311DEG 13KT 3437 10438

34