Red Flag Warning 64, NWS Albuquerque, NM

634 
WWUS85 KABQ 292114
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW
HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOWERING SOME. A FEW SPOTTY LOCATIONS MAY
SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD BE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE. THE FLOW ON MONDAY WONT BE QUITE AS TURBULENT AS
OBSERVED TODAY BUT MOUNTAIN WAVES COULD ADD A TWIST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

NMZ103-104-107-108-300400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110530T0400Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0064.110530T1600Z-110531T0100Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
314 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT
MONDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
MDT MONDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL TO EVEN SOMETIMES EXTREME CONDITIONS
  WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
  THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING.
  ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
  OF THE AFTERNOON. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
  BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH REST OF TODAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
  WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH ON
  MONDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
  MOST AREAS WITH LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN... 
  ROUGHLY ABOVE 8800 FEET ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE 
  DE CRISTOS AND MANZANOS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ101-102-105-106-109-300400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110530T0400Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WESTERN CARSON-SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
314 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...ONGOING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS TODAY.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
  GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 55 MPH FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS 
  ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND
  10 ALTHOUGH LOWER TO MID TEENS WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
  TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL AS NEAR THE ARIZONA
  STATE LINE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
50

247 
WWUS85 KABQ 300358
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
958 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT MEMORIAL DAY
FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD TO THE
TEXAS STATE LINE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING MEMORIAL DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH WITH
STRONG GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITY MEMORIAL DAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 

NMZ103-104-107-108-301200-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110530T0400Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0064.110530T1600Z-110531T0100Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
958 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT
MEMORIAL DAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT
MEMORIAL DAY.

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
  TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STARTING MID MORNING ON
  MEMORIAL DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20
  AND 35 MPH...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
  AREAS WITH LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
  EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SANDIA MOUNTAINS
  AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

$$

NMZ101-102-105-106-109-300500-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110530T0400Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WESTERN CARSON-SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
958 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUNDAY EXPIRED AT 10 PM...

THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FOR SUNDAY HAS EXPIRED AT 10 PM.

$$

136 
WWUS85 KABQ 301057
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
457 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT TODAY FOR
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE
TEXAS STATE LINE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE
TEXAS STATE LINE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH WITH
STRONG GUSTS AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT TODAY.

NMZ103-104-107-108-302130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0064.110530T1600Z-110531T0100Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
457 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
  EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN STARTING MID MORNING TODAY
  AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20
  AND 35 MPH...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ON TODAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
  MOST AREAS WITH LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
  ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS... 
  SANDIA MOUNTAINS AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

$$

43

743 
WWUS85 KABQ 302102
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM MDT TODAY FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS STATE
LINE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING. 

NMZ103-104-107-108-310300-
/O.EXT.KABQ.FW.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110531T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
302 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO
  THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE
  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID
  EVENING.  

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH
  GUSTS BETWEEEN 40 TO 50 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
  EASTERN PLAINS WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

$$
50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NEW MEXICO CIRCULATING ABOUT
THIS FEATURE. UPSTREAM...A CLOSED LOW IS WINDING UP OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. SURFACE CHARTS PLACING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND IN BELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN UTAH. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINKING ALL THIS UP IS ALLOWING
SOME PENETRATION OF 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NEW MEXICO...AND SOME PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN UNION COUNTY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME
MAJOR DIFFERENCES FROM LATE SUNDAY ONWARD IN PATTERN EVOLUTION AND
FEATURE PLACEMENT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION MOVES CLOSED LOW FROM
NORTHERN NEVADA TO SOUTHWEST UTAH THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WORKING OUT OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE HEART OF
NEW MEXICO. CLOSED LOW EJECTS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY ON MEMORIAL DAY...AS GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST
OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL MAKE SLOW DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TO ARRIVE NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. TAKES
ROBUST SHAPE. RIDGE WILL BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM...WHICH WILL STALL OUT OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA NEXT WEEKEND. EMERGING PATTERN FOCUSES ATTENTION
ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE
CIRCULATING TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON UPSTREAM MARGINS OF THE RIDGE
CAN REACH NEW MEXICO. MODEL TRENDS POINT TO SOMEWHAT REDUCED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...BUT BASIC MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE HAS GOOD RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE HEART OF THE HOLIDAY SHORTENED UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. RIDGE EXPANSION WEST AND SOUTH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION
OVER NEW MEXICO FOR LATE IN THE HOLIDAY SHORTENED WORK WEEK.
MODELS STARTING TO LOSE COHERENCE LATE NEXT WEEKEND...AS EUROPEAN
CENTER COLLEAGUES RETROGRADE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW WESTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC AGAINST EXPANDING RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO...WHILE
VERY PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES CLOSED LOW EASTWARD TO ARIZONA PLACING
NEW MEXICO IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL CHECK OUT FUTURE RUNS
WITH INTEREST TO SEE HOW LONG THE RIDGE WILL LAST OVER NEW MEXICO.

NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ROARING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ALOFT WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
NEVADA...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
SUPPORT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ESPECIALLY STRONG WINDS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEST TO
ARIZONA LINE...AND OVER THE SUMMITS AND HIGH SLOPES OF THE SAN
JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL GO WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE SPOTS...AND COMPLEMENTARY WIND
ADVISORIES AROUND THE MARGINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WIND AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO THE
EAST...AND NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TO THE WEST UNDER
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SIFTING IN BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM.
EXPECTING SOME RECORD HIGHS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND RECORDS WILL GET A MAJOR SCARE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS TO THE NORTH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
CLOSED LOW SLIDES THROUGH...AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH LYING ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE
STATE. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF IN THE COLUMN...WETTING
RAINS WITH THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS SEEM UNLIKELY.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST TO
TAKE EDGE OFF WEEKEND HEAT WITH 10 TO 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
OVER SUNDAY EXPERIENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR WETTING
RAINS. WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER REMAIN THE KEY MEMORIAL DAY
ISSUES...WINDS STRONGEST AND EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE WILL BLOW OVER SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES...AND FIRE DANGER GREATEST FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LINES.

FOR TUESDAY...CLOSED LOW LONG GONE TO NORTHERN PLAINS...AS NEXT
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD
SAN FRANCISCO BAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WITH SOME DRY LINE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL START
SHOWING UP FROM INTERSTATE 40 SOUTHWARD...AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND THIS WILL EXPAND TO ALL OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONVECTION...IF INITIATED...COULD BE
VIGOROUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING 2
TO 4 BELOW C...MUCAPE RUNNING AROUND 2000 J PER KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE RISING ABOVE
AN INCH TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER
STORMS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND SOME POSSIBLE HAIL IN TALLER
STORMS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...AS RIDGE STARTS
TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. ACTION WILL PROVIDE
SOME INHIBITION ON EASTERN CONVECTION...AND SHIFT SHOWER FOCUS
WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED THETA E RIDGE SHIFTS TO LINE FROM CLAYTON TO EL PASO.
SOMEWHAT REDUCED INSTABILITY AND MUCAPE OVER TUESDAY
EXPERIENCE...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH TO
SUPPORT LOCAL DOWNPOURS...AND SOME CHANCES FOR GUSTS AND HAIL IN
TALLER AND STRONGER STORMS. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL STATEWIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS NEW MEXICO REMAINS ON
WESTERN MARGINS OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN U.S.
CIRCULATION WILL HELP DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY TO REINFORCE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED UP THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. STEADY
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING NORMAL OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ON EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SHALLOW BACK DOOR
MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
NM AND THIS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE BEING
DRIVEN OUT OF THE STATE BY INCREASING W TO SW WINDS. UNTIL THEN
HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CATEGORY CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY
COVERING NE HALF OR SO OF UNION COUNTY. EVEN VERY LOCALIZED VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONGER GUSTS WITH MANY
OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXPERIENCING 35 KT PLUS GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE WIND...COUPLED WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND GENERALLY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES AT NIGHT...ENSURING WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN WELL INTO THIS EVE. EXCEPTION IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
UNION COUNTY...THIS MORNING WHERE FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH RH
VALUES CURRENTLY OCCURRING. THIS HIGH RH IS NOT EXPECTED TO REPEAT
LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING AS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED
BY FAIRLY STIFF SW FLOW.

AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE VERY LOW HUMIDITY...STRONG WINDS AND ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING
ABOUT A SLAM DUNK RED FLAG EVENT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM.
EXTREME READINGS STILL INDICATED ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO ANTECEDENT POOR RH RECOVERIES...ABUNDANT AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS. EVEN SOME SECTIONS OF
THE HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DISPLAY SOME PATCHY
EXTREME VALUES. THUS A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER GROWING EVENT FOR
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF N AND CENTRAL NM. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND FAR WEST AND PERHAPS NORTH
NM. CURRENT RED FLAG HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD...SO WILL KEEP EVENT
TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED.

THE MAIN WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO TRANSLATE OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...FAVORING THE NORTH THIRD MON MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN...A BIT SLOWER TRANSLATION THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
THUS INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT ACROSS ROUGHLY E HALF OF FCST AREA
IN AFTN. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES LEADING INTO MONDAY ACROSS EAST
HALF WILL GENERATE CRITICAL CONDITIONS MONDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS
LIKELY ENOUGH TO OCCUR THAT DECISION MADE TO UPGRADE THAT WATCH AREA
MONDAY TO A WARNING. WEST CENTRAL AND NW AREAS NOT ALL THAT FAVORED
DUE LARGELY TOO COOLING AND LOWERED LAPSE RATES. BUT HUMIDITY VALUES
HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE AS SURFACE COOLING CONTRASTS
WITH INFLUX OF LOWER DEWPOINTS. SINGLE DIGIT RH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

MID AND LONGER TERM COMPUTER FCST MODELS STILL DEPICT SIGNIFICANT
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US WITH A DEEPER...SLOW
MOVING TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR MIDWEEK...BUT IN
CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS PREVIOUS AND BEYOND THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH
ON THE PRECIPITATION AREA FOR SW TO CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL NM THAN
GFS IS. FORMER MODEL/S QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT HIGH.BUT THE OVERALL
AREA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR END OF WEEK AND WEEKEND...MODELS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN AS ECMWF BUILD HIGH RIGHT OVER
NM...SHUTTING DOWN MOST PCPN...WHILE GFS WETS THINGS UP IN THE STATE
AND KEEPS HIGH CENTERED A LITTLE WAYS E OF THE STATE. CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY GOOD NOW THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM... ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME SORT OF MOISTURE FLUX WILL ALSO OCCUR BUT HOW
MOIST IS STILL A LITTLE BIT IN QUESTION.

EASTERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING FAIRLY CAPPED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES BUT AGAIN THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STEERING FLOWS AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH THUS UPPER HIGH PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY. ALSO FIGURE
THAT THE LOWEST HUMIDITY READINGS BOTH DAY AND NIGHT WOULD BE FOUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD. THE MAIN BATTLE ZONE FOR THE HIGHER AND
LOWER MOISTURE SLOSHING WOULD BE FOUND BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND FIRE
STARTS WOULD CLEARLY BE A THREAT DURING A LARGE PORTION OF THIS
PERIOD. FIRE GROWTH DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
AND/OR VERY DRY FUEL AND SLOPE ALIGNMENT. ALSO BE ON THE WATCH OUT
FOR AN EVENTUAL BREAK DOWN IN THIS PATTERN WHICH MAY COME A LITTLE
SOONER THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICT SINCE WE ARE IN EARLY JUNE AT
THAT POINT. THUS...SOME LIGHTNING FOLLOWED BY ENHANCED WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WE WILL WATCH FOR THIS TREND WITHIN THE MODELS.

43
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  46  68  38 /   5   5   5   0
DULCE...........................  79  39  62  30 /   5  10   5   0
CUBA............................  82  44  66  34 /   5   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  78  41  64  33 /   5   5   5   0
EL MORRO........................  76  40  61  33 /   5   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  80  44  64  34 /   5   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  81  43  68  36 /   5   5   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  90  50  79  45 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  74  38  58  27 /   5  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  83  47  69  36 /   5   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  46  71  35 /   5   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  80  43  64  29 /   5  10   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  70  42  54  31 /   5  10   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  76  41  61  30 /   5  10   5   5
TAOS............................  83  48  68  32 /   5   5   5   0
MORA............................  82  47  70  35 /   5   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  89  48  75  42 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  84  46  70  37 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  87  48  73  41 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  88  54  75  49 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  89  56  76  52 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  52  78  47 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  90  55  76  51 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  93  52  80  46 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  90  54  76  50 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  94  57  85  54 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  83  50  69  41 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  87  51  73  42 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  46  75  42 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  48  71  45 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  54  79  46 /   0   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  88  56  82  52 /   0   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  80  58  76  55 /   0   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  85  55  75  41 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  50  77  36 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  90  52  79  41 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  85  50  73  39 /   5   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  93  54  85  46 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  88  57  79  48 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  98  61  88  50 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  98  58  88  50 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  62  91  51 /   5   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  96  59  90  53 /   5  10   5  10
PORTALES........................  98  59  92  54 /   5  10   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  99  60  92  52 /   5   5   5  10
ROSWELL......................... 105  62  97  59 /   5  10   5  10
PICACHO.........................  95  60  88  56 /   0   5   5   5
ELK.............................  88  59  81  53 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-506-507-511-512-514-515-521-523-524-526>529-539-540.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-516>520-522-525-530>538.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-505-508-510-513.

&&

SHY/43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2011

NMZ501>540-291200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
542 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS  WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 45 TO
50M MPH DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEST TO THE ARIZONA LINE...AND OVER THE SUMMITS AND HIGHER SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES.

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES.

SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON TO SOCORRO MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...DOWNPOURS...AND HAIL AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 ON WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WILDFIRE STARTS...MEASURED WIND
SPEEDS...AND WIND IMPACTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ...BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637...OR VIA AMATEUR RADIO.

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
230 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

NMZ530-291300-
UNION COUNTY-
230 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2011

DENSE FOG IN SPOTS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNION COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES CLAYTON...CLAYTON
LAKE STATE PARK...SENECA...HIGHWAYS 64 AND 87...AND HIGHWAYS 56 AND
412. EXPECT DENSE FOG IN VALLEYS AND DIPS...AND IN SHELTERED AREAS.
IF DRIVING...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS WHEN ENTERING FOG. FOG WILL
LIFT WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE.

SHY