Red Flag Warning 50, NWS Albuquerque, NM

927 
WWUS85 KABQ 100252
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY...ALLOWING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A SMALL UPTICK IN HUMIDITIES...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS TUESDAY. FORECAST HAINES INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 OVER
THE WARNING AREA...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS.

NMZ103-104-106>109-101400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110510T0300Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0050.110510T1500Z-110511T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
852 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT
TUESDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...EASTERN PLAINS...
  SANDIA/MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
  AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
  DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 13 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
  PLAINS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND NEAR 15 PERCENT OVER
  THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ101-102-105-100400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110510T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WESTERN CARSON-SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
852 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED BELOW CRITICAL SPEEDS AND
HUMIDITIES HAVE INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE WARNING TO
EXPIRE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND HIGHLANDS AS
WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

$$

182 
WWUS85 KABQ 101232
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
632 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND 
LOW HUMIDITY...

.ANOTHER STRONG JET MAX WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY HUMIDITIES TO THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. 
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY EARLY EVENING AS A COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION 
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THREE TO FOUR HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. 

NMZ104-108-102200-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.A.0048.110511T1700Z-110512T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0050.110510T1500Z-110511T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
632 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. CRITICAL
  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
  THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ONCE
  AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING FAVORING
  THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
  MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 13 PERCENT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

NMZ103-106-107-109-102200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0050.110510T1500Z-110511T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
632 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...EASTERN PLAINS...
  SANDIA/MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
  AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
  DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 13 PERCENT ACROSS THE 
  EASTERN PLAINS AND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

598 
WWUS85 KABQ 102200
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
400 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...

.CRITICAL VALUE WINDS AND HUMIDITY COMBO LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
MID EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG
WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH EMPHASIS ON
EAST HALF OF THE STATE. THREE TO FIVE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY.

NMZ104-108-110300-
/O.UPG.KABQ.FW.A.0048.110511T1700Z-110512T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.W.0051.110511T1700Z-110512T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110511T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
400 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. CRITICAL
  CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CRITICAL
  CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY
  THROUGH EARLY EVENING FAVORING THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 
  MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 13 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ103-106-107-109-110300-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110511T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
400 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...SANDIA/MANZANO AND
  GALLINAS MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
  HIGHLANDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
  EARLY EVENING.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

43

984 
WWUS85 KABQ 110259
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
859 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL ONCE
AGAIN CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAYS
READINGS. 

NMZ104-108-111400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110511T0300Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0051.110511T1700Z-110512T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
859 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
  PLAINS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
  AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 8 AND 13 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ103-106-107-109-110400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110511T0300Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
859 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD. VERY LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

34

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CHURNING AWAY OVER
OREGON...AND ONLY MAKING A SLUGGISH PACE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
REGARDLESS THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT HAVE RESPONDED UPWARD WITH 50
TO 60 KT NOTED AT 6 KM AGL PER AZTEC AND WHITE SANDS WIND
PROFILERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WITH THE LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 989 MB AND ADDING AN INCREASED
SURFACE GRADIENT. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A STRONG WIND EVENT...BUT
WILL NOT BE AS SEVERE AS SOME HAVE BEEN THUS FAR THIS SPRING.
INHERITED WIND ADVISORY/WARNING HIGHLIGHTS HAVE REMAINED IN TACT.

FROM A PRECIPITATION STANDPOINT...COVERAGE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH ONLY MEAGER CHANCES TODAY FOR
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AN UNATTAINABLE LUXURY THAT REMAINING ZONES JUST WONT HAVE...BUT
RATHER SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES AND SUB-ZERO DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
ENHANCE CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE STATE SHOULD IMPLY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT...SO HAVE HEDGED ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. STRONGEST BELT OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BISECT NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SPLITS...SHEDDING ONE PIECE OF ENERGY
FAR INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE WESTERN- MOST PIECE
DIVES INTO ARIZONA. THE TREND OF TAKING THIS LATTER VORT MAX
FARTHER SOUTH HAS CONTINUED THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. IT DOES NOT
LOOK AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY TAP INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH...BUT IT WILL COME CLOSE...JUST
ENOUGH TO TEASE NEW MEXICO WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER GOING INTO
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL BE IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH FAIRLY SPARSE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
CONTINUING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOME SOUTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY...BUT WILL GET
THROUGH TODAY/S EVENT BEFORE PINPOINTING THAT.

INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MID DAY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS
TIME FRAME STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW POPS
WERE EXTENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. STILL THE BULK OF THIS SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF I-40. THE COLDER CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HOST SOME
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0 TO -3 C AT H7...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS COULD TALLY A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTABLY COOLER AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT.

RIDGE QUICKLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON THURSDAY IN A BLOCKING PATTERN
TO FINISH UP THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE WESTERN CONUS LOW AND RIDES UP OVER THE RIDGE
AXIS IN NEW MEXICO. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS TO THE OTHER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INGREDIENT...MOISTURE IN
THE EAST VIA A BACK DOOR FRONTAL AND DRYLINE INTRUSION. ISOLATED
POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS REGIME. WINDS WILL
LIKELY RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GETS WORKED ON BY
FORCES TO THE WEST AND SLOWLY ERODES AWAY.

52

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KTS
EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG I-40 FROM CLINES CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI.
BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN..PARTICULARLY THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. KW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CURRENT PATTERN SETUP WILL BE ONE OF A FIRE WEATHER GROWING
PATTERN WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SANDIA MANZANOS EAST ACROSS CLINES
CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL COUPLED WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE 2 TO 6 PERCENT RANGE...
WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH AND HAINES INDICES OF
5 AND 6. THIS WILL BE THE ZONE OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
TODAY. EXPECT PUTRID OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO WEST TEXAS WITH FAIR TO POOR RECOVERIES
OVER THE WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WETTING PRECIPITATION IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN
THE MAIN THREAT AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DUE TO THE COOLER MAX
TEMPERATURES...WE EXPECT GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING CENTRAL AND WEST BUT REMAINING POOR OVER THE
EAST.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND POINTS WEST. THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS LAP
OVER INTO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED. AM CONCERNED
THAT THE COOLER TEMPS MAY OFFSET CRITICAL CONDITIONS BY KEEPING RH
VALUES UP A BIT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RED FLAG WOULD BE OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO HAVE A
FURTHER INSPECTION OF THE THREAT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LESS WIND EXPECTED. THIS WILL SQUASH THE
THREAT FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
INDICATE MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE EAST. MODELS HAVE INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND TRENDS OF THIS PATTERN SEEM TO CONTINUE IN THE GFS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  39  66  40 /  20  10  10  30
DULCE...........................  67  32  64  31 /  20  10  20  30
CUBA............................  71  36  65  32 /   5   5  10  20
GALLUP..........................  67  34  61  32 /   5   5  10  20
EL MORRO........................  68  33  58  28 /   5   5   5  10
GRANTS..........................  73  40  64  35 /   5   5   5  10
QUEMADO.........................  72  37  63  30 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  81  45  71  40 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  65  32  57  30 /  20  10  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  69  44  64  40 /   5   5   5  10
PECOS...........................  70  42  64  35 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  68  36  62  34 /   5   5   5  20
RED RIVER.......................  61  34  55  29 /   5   5   5  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  36  59  31 /   5   5   0  20
TAOS............................  72  37  65  35 /   5   5   5  10
MORA............................  70  41  63  36 /   5   0   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  79  40  72  38 /   5   5   5  10
SANTA FE........................  75  43  67  37 /   5   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  77  43  70  39 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  79  51  71  44 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  80  54  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  82  49  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  82  51  74  44 /   0   0   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  83  49  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  81  51  73  43 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  85  54  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  77  45  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  79  49  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  42  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  77  44  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  80  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  81  53  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  77  50  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  80  44  74  42 /   0   0   0  10
RATON...........................  81  43  76  43 /   0   0   0  10
SPRINGER........................  82  46  76  42 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  45  70  39 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  89  51  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  84  51  76  45 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  91  55  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  87  54  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  56  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  90  54  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  92  54  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  58  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  94  59  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  88  58  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  84  56  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ505-506-508-515-521>524-526-528-529-531>533-539-540.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>504-507-509>514-516>520-525-527-530-534>538.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

NMZ501>540-101200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
547 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AREAS WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THE EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHERE
AGAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME BRIEF AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SOME OF
THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR HIGH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH TO THE ALBUQUERQUE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 1.888.386.7637 OR VIA THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ.

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