Alert archive / New Mexico / Red Flag Warnings in 2011
Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Albuquerque, NM
NWS Albuquerque, NM issued this red flag warning at Mar 24, 2011, 3:52 PM MDT for Harding County, San Miguel County, Union County, New Mexico. It took effect at Mar 25, 2011, 11:00 AM MDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 24, 2011, 3:52 PM MDT (21:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 25, 2011, 11:00 AM MDT
- Expired
- Mar 25, 2011, 8:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Albuquerque, NM
Counties Harding County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2345 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 439 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 549 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
537 WWUS85 KABQ 242152 RFWABQ FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 352 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... ...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... .ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH PASSING NORTH OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BRIEFLY TONIGHT THEN RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING. THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 8 PM. AFTER MOSTLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY WHILE HUMIDITIES REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING...EXCEPT FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WHERE IT HAS BEEN CANCELLED BECAUSE WIND SPEEDS WONT QUITE REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NMZ103-104-107-108-250200- /O.UPG.KABQ.FW.A.0021.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/ /O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110325T0200Z/ NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103 NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104 NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107 SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108 EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ- 352 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...EXCEPT FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED TWO RED FLAG WARNINGS. THE FIRST IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY HAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY EVENING. * WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS UNTIL SUNSET. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH. WINDS WILL ONLY REACH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES ON FRIDAY...SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN FRIDAYS RED FLAG WARNING. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL FALL BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT TODAY AND FRIDAY. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. * TIMING...AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN. THOUGH WEAKER...WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FRIDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND SUNSET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$ 44
2 follow-up statements
919 WWUS85 KABQ 250202 RFWABQ FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 802 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... .ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED TO BRUSH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. NMZ103-104-107-108-251400- /O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110325T0200Z/ /O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/ NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103 NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104 NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107 SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108 EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ- 802 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY. * WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 5 TO 12 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$
556 WWUS85 KABQ 251017 RFWABQ FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 417 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... .ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED TO BRUSH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO PROVIDING FOR A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY... INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WEST WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. NMZ103-104-107-108-260200- /O.NEW.KABQ.FW.A.0022.110327T1800Z-110328T0100Z/ /O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/ NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103 NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104 NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107 SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ- NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108 EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ- 417 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 PERCENT. * TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Mar 24, 3:05 PM MDT, 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 24, 3:05 PM MDT, 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 305 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO IN THE COMING DAYS. ONE SUCH UPR LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC80 500MB ANALYSIS... GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM SALT LAKE CITY TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS NOTED IN THE COLORADO MTN METARS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE SRN SAN JUANS ABOVE 7500 FEET. MEANWHILE...A SFC DRYLINE IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE KLVS...KCQC AND KROW ARE ALL REPORTING SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS WITH MIDDLE 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM QUAY TO LEA COUNTIES. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED SOME PUNY CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTS...ALSO LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY EARLY EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONGOING RFW/NPW PRODUCTS ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z/FRI AND THIS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. GRADIENT ALOFT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO ALLOW SOME BREEZINESS TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET...MAINLY IMMEDIATELY LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTS. THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL...THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN AOA SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MID-SLOPE INVERSION AROUND 775MB. NAM12/GFS40...AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE ECMWF...HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. BUT FIRST...THE PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO SLIDE NE INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MORE NRN TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY REDUCE PCPN CHANCES AS WELL AS THE WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT WAS EARLIER THOUGHT THAT WIND SPEEDS WERE A BIT TOO LOW ON THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE 994-996MB SFC LOW COULD BE FURTHER SOUTH INTO NE NEW MEXICO. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. ATTM... IT APPEARS THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY NEED ONE IS THE NRN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA. SINCE AN ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT AND TO LIMIT CONFUSION...WILL ALLOW THE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT CREWS DECIDE HOW TO HANDLE THE WIND SITUATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...SPEEDS SHOULD EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WITH AN ALREADY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH NO CHANGES IN AREAL COVERAGE OR TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...PCPN CHANCES LOOK MEAGER AND HAVE LIMITED BEST POTENTIAL TO THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN. MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE MTN PEAKS. A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL RACE ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. A CLOSED LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EAST ON SUNDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS OFFERED A CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER NRN NM... THEN THEY TRANSITIONED IT INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND NOW THE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS TEMPTED TO PULL POPS ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER THE ECMWF STILL OFFERS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN DUE TO A MORE SRN/SLOWER TRACK. NONETHELESS...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR CENTRAL/SRN NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW LOCALES APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MODELS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS A WIDE PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS ARE OFFERED. THE GFS40 BRINGS A DEEP CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CLIPPING THE NRN ZONES. THE ECMWF HAS SIMILAR TIMING BUT IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. WOULD BE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF BASED ON THE PERSISTENT LA NINA DRY PATTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN STUCK IN. EVEN A MORE UNBELIEVABLE GFS40 SCENARIO IS OFFERED BY MID-WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NEW MEXICO. ECMWF LATCHED ON TO A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE BUT MUCH WEAKER AND ONLY CLIPS NRN/ERN NM. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. DPORTER && .AVIATION... STRONG SW WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR S WINDS ALONG BORDER WITH TX/OK. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ALONG E SLOPES OF CNTRL MTN CHAIN AND ACROSS E CNTRL/NE PLAINS. CALMER WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LESS SPEED REDUCTION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL MTN CHAIN...LIKE KAXX...WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. WINDS WILL SHIFT MOSTLY OUT OF THE W AND SW BY FRIDAY...WHEN THEY WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR E SLOPES CNTRL MTN CHAIN AND VCNTY KGUP...WHERE GUSTS SHOULD REACH 35 TO 40 KTS. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND FRI AFTN NR CO BORDER FM SAN JUANS WESTWARD. SHRA/SHSN TO INCRS IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN MTNS FRI NIGHT. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG WARNING ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING ALONG/E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SW AND S WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 50 MPH IN THIS AREA UNTIL SUNSET. FARTHER WEST SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH CAUSING THE WINDS WILL EJECT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING SPEEDS TO WEAKEN. A SMALLER REDUCTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES N OF NM AND ANOTHER SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THOSE FELT TODAY. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 40 MPH ALONG AND JUST E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ALSO AROUND GALLUP. HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY CLIMB ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE WEST...BUT WILL AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST. SO WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE WE WILL UPGRADE FRIDAYS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WEAKEST CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRI WILL BE IN ROOSEVELT AND CURRY COUNTIES...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN SOCORRO COUNTY FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH IS NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NW PLATEAU NEAR THE CO BORDER FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY CELLS IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY... COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO NM THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND AROUND 2 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAINLY NORTH OF NM...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON WHETHER IT WILL CROSS AS AN OPEN WAVE OR CLOSED LOW. MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF I-40 AND RELEGATED MOSTLY ALONG THE CO BORDER. AT THIS TIME ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING OF WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED...MORE SO ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS SATURDAY COULD REACH 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE VICINITY OF CLINES CORNERS...VAUGHN AND ENCINO...WHERE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A REPRIEVE FROM CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEPICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM CROSSING AS A CLOSED LOW. THIS COULD STEER THE POLAR JET STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND CAUSE A STRONG SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CO. MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE CO BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK GENERALLY WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND REPEATED DISTURBANCES DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 28 58 29 55 / 0 5 10 5 DULCE........................... 20 52 20 47 / 0 10 20 10 CUBA............................ 25 59 24 55 / 0 0 10 5 GALLUP.......................... 24 56 25 57 / 0 0 5 5 EL MORRO........................ 23 55 25 55 / 0 0 0 5 GRANTS.......................... 24 61 24 60 / 0 0 0 5 QUEMADO......................... 27 62 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 30 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 23 48 21 45 / 0 10 30 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 59 35 56 / 0 0 5 5 PECOS........................... 29 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 19 55 20 51 / 0 0 10 0 RED RIVER....................... 23 46 20 44 / 0 5 20 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 50 21 47 / 0 0 10 0 TAOS............................ 19 58 21 55 / 0 0 10 5 MORA............................ 24 55 26 53 / 0 0 5 0 ESPANOLA........................ 29 67 28 63 / 0 0 5 5 SANTA FE........................ 31 61 30 58 / 0 0 5 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 30 64 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 67 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 33 70 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 70 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 33 72 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 34 69 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 40 76 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 33 67 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 66 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 62 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 39 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 35 60 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 26 63 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 27 66 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 25 67 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 28 61 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 31 70 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 32 67 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 35 75 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 34 74 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 35 77 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 38 75 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 36 77 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 35 78 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 38 85 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 36 76 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 36 70 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ515-521-523-524-526>534-537-539-540. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. && 46/43
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 24, 6:15 AM MDT, 9 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 615 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2011 NMZ501>540-251200- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 611 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AT 911 AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1.888.386.7637 TO REPORT STRONG WINDS AND WILDFIRES. 17
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in New Mexico, 2011Every red flag warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.