Alert archive / New Mexico / Red Flag Warnings in 2011

Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Albuquerque, NM

March 24, 2011Harding County, San Miguel County, Union County, New Mexico

NWS Albuquerque, NM issued this red flag warning at Mar 24, 2011, 3:52 PM MDT for Harding County, San Miguel County, Union County, New Mexico. It took effect at Mar 25, 2011, 11:00 AM MDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 24, 2011, 3:52 PM MDT (21:52 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 25, 2011, 11:00 AM MDT
Expired
Mar 25, 2011, 8:00 PM MDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Albuquerque, NM

Counties Harding County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2011-03-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2011-03-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 439 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2345 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
439 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
549 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

537 
WWUS85 KABQ 242152
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
352 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH PASSING NORTH OF NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BRIEFLY TONIGHT THEN RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES AND SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING. THUS...A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 8 PM. AFTER MOSTLY
POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
WEST AND RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY WHILE HUMIDITIES REMAIN CRITICALLY
LOW. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING...EXCEPT FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WHERE IT
HAS BEEN CANCELLED BECAUSE WIND SPEEDS WONT QUITE REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NMZ103-104-107-108-250200-
/O.UPG.KABQ.FW.A.0021.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110325T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
352 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...EXCEPT FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED TWO RED FLAG
WARNINGS. THE FIRST IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY HAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL
8 PM FRIDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
  SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40
  AND 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF
  THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST PLAINS
  AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS UNTIL SUNSET. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
  WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
  GUSTS REACHING 35 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH. WINDS WILL ONLY REACH 10 TO
  20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES ON
  FRIDAY...SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN FRIDAYS RED FLAG WARNING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL FALL BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT TODAY AND
  FRIDAY. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOST
  LOCATIONS. 

* TIMING...AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB
  ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN. THOUGH
  WEAKER...WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
  OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FRIDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

44
2 follow-up statements
919 
WWUS85 KABQ 250202
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
802 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED TO BRUSH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. 

NMZ103-104-107-108-251400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110325T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
802 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
FRIDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20
  TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 5 TO 12 PERCENT FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
556 
WWUS85 KABQ 251017
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
417 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED TO BRUSH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO PROVIDING FOR A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG
WEST WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

NMZ103-104-107-108-260200-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.A.0022.110327T1800Z-110328T0100Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
417 AM MDT FRI MAR 25 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
  20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
  RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
  HUMIDITY VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
  ANOTHER PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
  SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Mar 24, 3:05 PM MDT, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 24, 3:05 PM MDT, 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
AS THEY TRACK ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO IN THE COMING DAYS. ONE SUCH UPR
LEVEL WAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC80 500MB ANALYSIS...
GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM SALT LAKE CITY TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW IS NOTED IN THE COLORADO MTN METARS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE SRN SAN JUANS
ABOVE 7500 FEET. MEANWHILE...A SFC DRYLINE IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE KLVS...KCQC AND KROW ARE ALL REPORTING
SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS WITH MIDDLE 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM QUAY TO LEA
COUNTIES. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
HAS ALLOWED SOME PUNY CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDY
CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTS...ALSO LEADING
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
EARLY EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONGOING RFW/NPW PRODUCTS ARE
SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z/FRI AND THIS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. GRADIENT
ALOFT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO ALLOW SOME BREEZINESS TO LINGER BEYOND
SUNSET...MAINLY IMMEDIATELY LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTS. THIS WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL...THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN AOA
SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MID-SLOPE
INVERSION AROUND 775MB.

NAM12/GFS40...AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE ECMWF...HAVE CHANGED THEIR
TUNE WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. BUT FIRST...THE PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO SLIDE NE INTO
THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MORE NRN TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY REDUCE
PCPN CHANCES AS WELL AS THE WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT WAS EARLIER THOUGHT THAT WIND SPEEDS WERE A BIT
TOO LOW ON THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THE 994-996MB SFC LOW COULD BE FURTHER SOUTH INTO NE NEW MEXICO. IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. ATTM...
IT APPEARS THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY NEED ONE IS THE NRN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA. SINCE AN ADVISORY IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT AND TO LIMIT CONFUSION...WILL ALLOW THE EVENING OR
MIDNIGHT CREWS DECIDE HOW TO HANDLE THE WIND SITUATION. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...SPEEDS SHOULD EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WITH AN
ALREADY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
A RED FLAG WARNING WITH NO CHANGES IN AREAL COVERAGE OR TIME FRAME.
MEANWHILE...PCPN CHANCES LOOK MEAGER AND HAVE LIMITED BEST POTENTIAL
TO THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN. MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
EVENING OVER THE MTN PEAKS. A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL RACE ACROSS THE
NW QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS.

A CLOSED LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EAST ON
SUNDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS OFFERED A CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER NRN NM...
THEN THEY TRANSITIONED IT INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND NOW THE LATEST RUNS
KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS TEMPTED TO PULL
POPS ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER THE ECMWF STILL OFFERS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER
THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN DUE TO A MORE SRN/SLOWER TRACK. NONETHELESS...A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR CENTRAL/SRN NEW MEXICO WITH A
FEW LOCALES APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MODELS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
AS A WIDE PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS ARE OFFERED. THE GFS40 BRINGS A DEEP
CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CLIPPING THE NRN ZONES. THE
ECMWF HAS SIMILAR TIMING BUT IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. WOULD
BE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF BASED ON THE PERSISTENT LA NINA DRY
PATTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN STUCK IN. EVEN A MORE UNBELIEVABLE GFS40
SCENARIO IS OFFERED BY MID-WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NEW MEXICO. ECMWF LATCHED ON
TO A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE BUT MUCH WEAKER AND ONLY CLIPS NRN/ERN NM.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HAVE NO COMPELLING
REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. DPORTER

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG SW WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR S WINDS ALONG
BORDER WITH TX/OK. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ALONG E SLOPES OF CNTRL
MTN CHAIN AND ACROSS E CNTRL/NE PLAINS. CALMER WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LESS SPEED REDUCTION AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL
MTN CHAIN...LIKE KAXX...WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MOSTLY OUT OF THE W AND SW BY FRIDAY...WHEN THEY WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN FAVOR E SLOPES CNTRL MTN CHAIN AND VCNTY KGUP...WHERE GUSTS
SHOULD REACH 35 TO 40 KTS. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND FRI
AFTN NR CO BORDER FM SAN JUANS WESTWARD. SHRA/SHSN TO INCRS IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NRN MTNS FRI NIGHT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY EVENING ALONG/E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SW AND S
WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 50 MPH IN THIS AREA UNTIL SUNSET. FARTHER WEST
SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH CAUSING THE WINDS WILL
EJECT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING SPEEDS TO WEAKEN. A SMALLER REDUCTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES N OF NM AND ANOTHER SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ON THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THOSE FELT
TODAY. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 40 MPH ALONG AND JUST E OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ALSO AROUND GALLUP. HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY CLIMB ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
AGAIN DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST. SO WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
FORECAST PACKAGE WE WILL UPGRADE FRIDAYS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING.  WEAKEST CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITICAL CONDITIONS
FRI WILL BE IN ROOSEVELT AND CURRY COUNTIES...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING.  ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE AN HOUR OR TWO
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN SOCORRO COUNTY
FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH IS NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NW PLATEAU NEAR THE CO BORDER FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY CELLS IN THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...
COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO NM THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND AROUND 2 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAINLY NORTH OF NM...BUT THEY
DISAGREE ON WHETHER IT WILL CROSS AS AN OPEN WAVE OR CLOSED LOW.
MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF I-40 AND RELEGATED MOSTLY ALONG THE CO BORDER. AT THIS TIME ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING OF WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED...MORE SO ON
SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS SATURDAY COULD REACH 30 TO 40
MPH IN THE VICINITY OF CLINES CORNERS...VAUGHN AND ENCINO...WHERE AN
HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A
REPRIEVE FROM CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN MOST LOCATIONS
SUNDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEPICTS A DEEPER
SYSTEM CROSSING AS A CLOSED LOW. THIS COULD STEER THE POLAR JET
STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND CAUSE A STRONG SURFACE LEE
TROUGH TO DEVELOP...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE. GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CO.
MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE CO BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND REPEATED
DISTURBANCES DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  28  58  29  55 /   0   5  10   5
DULCE...........................  20  52  20  47 /   0  10  20  10
CUBA............................  25  59  24  55 /   0   0  10   5
GALLUP..........................  24  56  25  57 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  23  55  25  55 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  24  61  24  60 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  27  62  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  30  66  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  23  48  21  45 /   0  10  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  59  35  56 /   0   0   5   5
PECOS...........................  29  57  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  19  55  20  51 /   0   0  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  23  46  20  44 /   0   5  20   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  50  21  47 /   0   0  10   0
TAOS............................  19  58  21  55 /   0   0  10   5
MORA............................  24  55  26  53 /   0   0   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  29  67  28  63 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  31  61  30  58 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  30  64  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  68  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  38  67  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  33  70  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  34  70  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  33  72  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  34  69  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  40  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  34  66  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  33  67  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  66  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  32  62  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  36  67  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  39  69  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  35  60  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  26  63  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  27  66  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  25  67  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  28  61  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  31  70  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  32  67  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  35  75  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  34  74  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  35  77  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  38  75  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  36  77  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  35  78  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  38  85  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  36  76  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  36  70  39  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-521-523-524-526>534-537-539-540.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

46/43
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 24, 6:15 AM MDT, 9 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
615 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

NMZ501>540-251200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
611 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY
RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AT 911 AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 1.888.386.7637 TO REPORT STRONG WINDS AND
WILDFIRES.

17

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in New Mexico, 2011Every red flag warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.