Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Albuquerque, NM

563 
WWUS85 KABQ 232145
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
IN THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...AND A STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTS
FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VERY DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A COUPLE HOURS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GILA
WILDERNESS.

FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FAVORING AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

NMZ103-104-107-108-241400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0023.110324T1600Z-110325T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0021.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
345 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT
THURSDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT
THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE
  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO
  50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
  CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
  WESTERN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE
  AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ONLY GUST FROM 35 TO
  PERHAPS 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL FALL BETWEEN 9 AND 15 PERCENT ON BOTH
  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND SUNSET ON BOTH
  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ109-241400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0020.110324T1600Z-110325T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
345 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
  OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

* TIMING...CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY 
  MORNING AND LAST UNTIL SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

44

447 
WWUS85 KABQ 241014
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
414 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 10 AM MDT TO 8 PM MDT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY...AND A STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. AN HOUR OR TWO OF LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE GILA WILDERNESS.

FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY FAVORING AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

NMZ109-241115-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.A.0020.110324T1600Z-110325T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
414 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS CANCELLED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. 

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN LOCALIZED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

$$

NMZ103-104-107-108-242200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0023.110324T1600Z-110325T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0021.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
414 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
  SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40
  AND 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF
  THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST PLAINS
  AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON
  FRIDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ONLY GUST FROM 35 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL FALL BETWEEN 9 AND 15 PERCENT TODAY AND
  FRIDAY.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND SUNSET TODAY AND
  FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

52

537 
WWUS85 KABQ 242152
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
352 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINISH PASSING NORTH OF NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BRIEFLY TONIGHT THEN RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES AND SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING. THUS...A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 8 PM. AFTER MOSTLY
POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
WEST AND RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY WHILE HUMIDITIES REMAIN CRITICALLY
LOW. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING...EXCEPT FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WHERE IT
HAS BEEN CANCELLED BECAUSE WIND SPEEDS WONT QUITE REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NMZ103-104-107-108-250200-
/O.UPG.KABQ.FW.A.0021.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110325T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
352 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...EXCEPT FOR CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED TWO RED FLAG
WARNINGS. THE FIRST IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY HAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL
8 PM FRIDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
  SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40
  AND 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF
  THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST PLAINS
  AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS UNTIL SUNSET. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL
  WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
  GUSTS REACHING 35 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH. WINDS WILL ONLY REACH 10 TO
  20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES ON
  FRIDAY...SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN FRIDAYS RED FLAG WARNING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL FALL BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT TODAY AND
  FRIDAY. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOST
  LOCATIONS. 

* TIMING...AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB
  ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN. THOUGH
  WEAKER...WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
  OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FRIDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

44

919 
WWUS85 KABQ 250202
RFWABQ

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
802 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BELOW
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED TO BRUSH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. 

NMZ103-104-107-108-251400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110325T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0024.110325T1700Z-110326T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
802 PM MDT THU MAR 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
FRIDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY. 

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20
  TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 5 TO 12 PERCENT FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
  DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT WED MAR 23 2011

...STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LIKELY ON THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEDNESDAY EXPECTED AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW SHIFTS
TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS 80 DEGREES OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS
INVERSIONS SETUP IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WILL SIDE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THERE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOUND IN COLORADO AND HAVE CONFINED POPS MAINLY TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD STILL DEVELOP WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET OVER THE SAN JUANS. BIGGER STORY FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A STRONGER 700MB JET WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION AS PRESSURE FALLS INDUCE A STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.
COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CRITICALLY LOW AND WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER THE
EAST TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE. PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST/NORTHWEST UNITED STATES BY THE WEEKEND.
INITIALLY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHARPEN
OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT YIELDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN BY LATER
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EAST.

LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE CRITICAL PERIOD
WHERE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH...SHEARED OUT AND WARMER.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE MODELS TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THAT BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW QPF...DID
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH CONDITIONS COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SINCE WE ARE STILL LOCKED IN A MODERATE LA NINA
PATTERN...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOLUTIONS TREND FURTHER
NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TIME WILL TELL. STAY TUNED.

KW

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME LOCALIZED AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE MORENO VALLEY
OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AROUND EAGLE NEST AND KAXX THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...CREATING LOCAL OBSCURATION TO VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AREA WIDE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE MUCH WEAKER TODAY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BREAK FROM THE STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VENTILATION WILL DEVELOP IN ALL BUT
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH DESPITE THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT LOW DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS. CONSEQUENTLY THESE AREAS WILL
SEE POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND
ONCE AGAIN THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE STIFFENED MORE BY DAYTIME THURSDAY WITH
ABOUT 25-30 KT AT 10 KFT LEVEL...AND A NEWLY DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BE SHAPING UP IN EASTERN COLORADO. EFFICIENT MIXING EVEN
ABOVE THE 10 KFT LEVEL WILL TRANSPIRE UNDER DECENT TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES...AND SO SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH
SEEM IN ORDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HAD FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS AREA
FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW...SO HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE WATCH TO A WARNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS OF FWZ 109.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR FWZ 109 SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER HERE.

A SIMILAR REGIME WILL REDEVELOP GOING INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER WAVE ON
THURSDAY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A REPLACEMENT ON
FRIDAY....AND THE SAME WILL BE TRUE OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO THURSDAY...GENERALLY BREEZY TO
WINDY IN ALL AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...WINDS WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...SO
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE HERE. SOME LOCALES WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE MAY FLIRT WITH CRITICAL WIND CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF HOUR OR
TWO...BUT OVERALL THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER WAVE IMPACTING THE STATE ON FRIDAY WILL KICK OUT TO THE
EAST AND A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN STATES BY SATURDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE WINDS ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL BE A FEW TICKS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
CONDITIONS WILL NONETHELESS REMAIN VERY DRY WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND EASTERN PLAINS OBSERVING RH AT 10 TO 15 PERCENT. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS WINDS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS
SATURDAY...BUT THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
RESPONSE TO ANY NORTHWARD CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AS WELL AS THE SMALLER PERTURBATION EJECTING CLOSER TO NEW
MEXICO. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BE A KEY
ELEMENT IN SUNDAYS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL DIFFERING WITH
THE TRACK OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAT WOULD OFFER US LESS
PRECIPITATION AND MORE WIND...BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORPHING THE
TROUGH INTO A LOW WITH MORE PRECIPITATION WHILE STRONGER WINDS GET
SHOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  27  57  33 /   0   0   5   0
DULCE...........................  53  22  54  24 /   0   0  10   0
CUBA............................  58  22  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  58  20  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  57  20  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  61  19  60  23 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  61  25  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  66  33  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  50  25  50  23 /   0   0  10   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  36  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  57  26  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  56  24  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  51  28  49  25 /   0   0   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  52  26  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  58  21  59  24 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  57  27  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  64  25  67  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  59  27  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  26  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  35  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  38  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  33  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  33  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  30  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  64  31  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  69  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  33  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  63  33  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  25  67  28 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  30  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  35  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  38  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  61  38  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  61  25  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  63  22  68  27 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  64  23  69  28 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  28  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  63  25  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  62  26  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  71  32  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  71  35  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  70  34  79  39 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  70  35  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  71  35  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  34  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  77  38  84  41 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  74  37  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  70  35  70  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ109.

&&

17/52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 AM MDT TUE MAR 22 2011

NMZ501>540-231200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
536 AM MDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FREQUENT WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 55 MPH WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 600 PM. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST
WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS IN DUST
PRONE AREAS. IN ADDITION...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON THE EASTERN PALINS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. FAVORED AREAS INCLUDE ELEVATIONS
NEAR AND ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE SAN JUANS...JEMEZ AND SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIDDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LOOKING OUT FURTHER...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE SUNDAY- MONDAY
PERIOD.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

41