Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS
TODAY...

AN ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AGAIN FOR ALL BURN SCARS VALID THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER NE NM SLIDING SLOWLY WEST
INTO THE NORTHERN MTS...WITH ANOTHER VORT SLIDING WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NM. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN LINE WITH MET/MAV NUMBERS
OVER ALL HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGH CHANCE FOR VALLEYS/HIGHLANDS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THRU TONIGHT. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY
AND THE PLACEMENT OF THAT FEATURE WAS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS
MORNING. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS DRY AREA MAINLY FROM AROUND
CORONA WEST TO SOCORRO AND INTO THE MAGDALENA AREA. HOWEVER STILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO ACTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND HIGH PWATS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.

NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF QPF DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE WEAKEST THROUGH MONDAY THUS
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS GREATEST DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THEN FOR A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY AS PWAT VALUES FALL TO NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. NONETHELESS...DAILY BOUTS OF
STORMS UNDER STRONG RECYCLING PROCESSES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS IN VALLEY LOCALES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

BY THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND EURO SHOW A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SPARKING A LARGE SCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO THURSDAY. THIS
FORCES A STRONG FRONT SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UP AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MTS FRIDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY
OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BOTH OF THESE MODELS
THEN SHOW A 593DM H5 RIDGE BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER NM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SLOW STEERING
FLOW.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LINGERING
CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WEAK...GENERALLY EAST TO WEST GRADIENT BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY...WDLY SCT TO SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KT IN TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AFT 18Z AND WILL DRIFT...IN GENERAL...TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY SPARK MORE ERRATICALLY MOVING CONVECTION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY. MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH
WEAK...GENERALLY EAST TO WEST WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ANY OF THE BURN SCARS. STORMS MAY PROPAGATE
ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN
LOWEST IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY
AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER
HALF OF JULY.

A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE WIND BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REFORMS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS...AND SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...AND SHIFT THE STORM
MOTION...MAKING STORMS MORE LIKELY TO DRIFT OUT INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS...DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE A BIT
FASTER...SO FLOODING DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE MIDWEEK...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ANTICIPATED.

ON THURSDAY...LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS PREDICT A STORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL FORCE A
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SPAWN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LINGER
INTO FRIDAY OVER THE REGION BASED ON THE MODEL SURFACE
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GRIDDED WIND FIELDS DON/T YET REFLECT
THIS. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER MAY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION OVERALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  96  66  94  65 /  20  30  30  30
DULCE...........................  89  54  87  54 /  30  40  40  50
CUBA............................  89  56  87  57 /  60  60  50  50
GALLUP..........................  91  57  88  58 /  30  30  40  40
EL MORRO........................  85  53  82  54 /  30  40  40  50
GRANTS..........................  89  58  87  58 /  30  40  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  87  56  84  58 /  60  50  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  90  63  89  64 /  40  50  40  30
CHAMA...........................  81  52  79  53 /  60  60  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  63  82  63 /  60  60  40  40
PECOS...........................  82  59  82  59 /  70  60  60  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  54  81  55 /  60  60  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  73  50  73  51 /  70  60  60  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  74  49  75  50 /  70  60  50  30
TAOS............................  86  56  86  57 /  60  50  40  30
MORA............................  80  56  79  55 /  60  60  50  30
ESPANOLA........................  89  61  87  61 /  50  50  30  30
SANTA FE........................  86  61  85  61 /  60  60  50  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  87  63  89  64 /  60  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  91  65  90  65 /  50  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  70  92  70 /  50  50  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  69  94  70 /  50  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  94  67  95  67 /  50  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  94  65  93  66 /  40  40  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  94  64  94  65 /  50  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  95  65  94  65 /  30  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  88  61  88  62 /  60  60  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  89  61  89  61 /  60  60  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  55  87  57 /  60  50  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  85  61  85  62 /  60  50  60  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  89  62  88  63 /  30  30  50  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  65  90  66 /  30  40  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  81  58  82  60 /  50  50  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  85  60  87  60 /  50  40  20  20
RATON...........................  91  62  92  63 /  40  30  30  20
SPRINGER........................  88  63  91  63 /  30  40  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  85  60  86  60 /  50  50  50  30
CLAYTON.........................  93  67  94  68 /  30  30  20  10
ROY.............................  88  66  89  65 /  20  30  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  95  73  96  73 /  10  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  94  70  94  70 /  10  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  97  71  98  71 /  10  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  94  69  95  69 /  10  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  95  70  96  70 /  10  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  71  97  72 /  10  20  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  96  71  98  71 /  10  20  10  10
PICACHO.........................  90  63  92  65 /  30  30  30  10
ELK.............................  83  59  85  60 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-511-512-514-526-527-539.

&&

GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1237 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2011

UPDATED TO EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERAGE

NMZ501>540-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
1237 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES
AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND OBSERVED
FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT
1.888.386.7637 OR VIA THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ.

SHY