Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Albuquerque, NM

471 
WGUS65 KABQ 222031
FFAABQ

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
231 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER AND
NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A LINE FROM SILVER CITY TO
RATON. THIS AREA INCLUDES RECENTLY BURNED AREAS IN CATRON AND
LINCOLN COUNTY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
REDUCE IN INTENSITY BY MID EVENING TO EASE THE FLASH FLOOD DANGER.

NMZ508-526-539-230200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-110723T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
231 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL 
  MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. 

* UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
  RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN O.5 AND 1.0 INCH PER HOUR ARE
  POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

* FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A PARTICULAR THREAT WITH 
  RAINFALL RATES OF THIS MAGNITUDE ON RECENT BURN SCARS. THIS 
  INCLUDES THE WALLOW...MILLER...WHITE...AND DONALDSON BURN SCARS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

SHY

521 
WGUS65 KABQ 230156
FFAABQ

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
756 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NMZ508-526-539-230300-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-110723T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
756 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE WALLOW...MILLER...DONALDSON AND WHITE BURN SCAR
AREAS HAS DIMINISHED. 

$$

40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM 24
HOURS AGO...STRETCHING FROM THE GILA REGION NE ACROSS THE RGV AND
INTO THE NORTHERN MTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 50F OVER
THE FAR NW TO NEAR 60F OVER THE SE PLAINS. DRY AIR THAT INFILTRATED
THE NW CORNER THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S WILL DO
SO AGAIN TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SE FROM GALLUP NE TO
DULCE. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO NUDGE IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS. GREATEST MOISTURE
AND WEAKEST STEERING FLOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AGAIN FOR RECENT
BURN SCARS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD TO 594DM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE MODELS SHOW WITH DECENT AGREEMENT DRY AIR
AND WEAKER INSTABILITY REMAINING LODGED IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE
OVER THE NW CORNER...LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE HURRICANE DORA WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING NW ALONG THE BAJA
COASTLINE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASE 700-500MB SE FLOW OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NM. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS SUNDAY AS MOIST SE UPSLOPE FLOW ENTERS THE AREA. THIS
MAY ALSO PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE RGV AS STEERING
FLOWS FORCES STORMS NW OFF THE CENTRAL MTS.

ALL EYES ARE FOCUSING ON NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HONE
IN ON A POTENTIAL CLASSIC MONSOONAL PATTERN OVER THE SW CONUS. THE
00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS ALL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SLIDING EAST INTO
TX WHILE THE CIRCULATION FROM REMNANT DORA BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG THE BAJA COASTLINE. HAVE KEPT EXTENDED POPS SLIGHTLY UNDER
CLIMO WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN UNTIL BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY EXISTS.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
GILA MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NORTH ACROSS SANTA FE THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER BATCH WILL
ALSO PERSIST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AFFECTING KROW AND KTCC.
EVEN WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS...VSBY AND CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
KTS...PEA SIZE HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW THREE MILES. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. KW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES HAVE OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A FORMIDABLE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHILE THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF NEW MEXICO REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. BASED ON THIS IT
APPEARS THE BEST CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE WEST PUTTING THE KIBOSH
ON STORM CHANCES. IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE DRY
AIR WILL PUSH SO AN ENHANCED DOWNBURST/MICROBURST THREAT MAY OCCUR
IN HIGHER BASED STORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AREA OF HIGHER PWATS TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE
WALLOW...MILLER...WHITE AND DONALDSON BURN SCARS. WILL HOIST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THAT WILL RUN FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM TODAY. STORMS INSIDE OF
THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

FOLLOWING GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EAST AND FAIR OVER THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEST.

IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING THE DEEPER
MONSOONAL PLUME SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE RECYCLING
MODES SHOULD DOMINATE WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED RANGE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE MODELS FOR THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS ONLY TO HAVE THE RIDGE NEAR OR IN THE VICINITY OF NEW MEXICO
IN THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL CONTINUE WETTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  97  62  96  63 /   5   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  90  51  89  55 /   5  20  10  10
CUBA............................  85  56  89  57 /  20  40  10  20
GALLUP..........................  90  55  89  55 /   5   5  10  10
EL MORRO........................  83  51  85  51 /  30  20  20  20
GRANTS..........................  88  57  89  57 /  30  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  85  55  86  55 /  20  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  92  63  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  82  50  83  54 /  10  20  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  64  84  63 /  30  30  20  30
PECOS...........................  83  59  83  59 /  40  40  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  53  84  55 /  10  10  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  72  50  74  51 /  40  30  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  74  49  77  49 /  50  40  50  40
TAOS............................  89  56  89  57 /  10  10  10  20
MORA............................  82  55  83  56 /  50  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  90  61  92  61 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  88  62  87  62 /  20  30  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  91  64  91  64 /  20  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  66  93  66 /  20  30  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  71  95  70 /  20  30   5  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  97  69  96  69 /  20  30   5  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  96  67  96  66 /  20  30   5  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  66  96  66 /  20  30   5  20
RIO RANCHO......................  95  64  95  63 /  30  30  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  96  66  96  67 /  30  30  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  60  89  60 /  40  40  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  91  61  91  61 /  40  40  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  55  89  55 /  40  50  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  61  86  62 /  60  60  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  90  63  90  63 /  50  60  50  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  65  91  66 /  40  40  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  83  59  83  59 /  60  60  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  93  61  92  62 /  50  40  40  30
RATON...........................  94  62  93  63 /  40  40  30  30
SPRINGER........................  91  63  92  63 /  40  40  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  60  86  60 /  60  60  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  95  69  94  69 /  40  40  20  30
ROY.............................  90  65  88  66 /  50  60  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  96  74  96  74 /  30  60  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  97  69  95  70 /  40  50  30  30
TUCUMCARI....................... 101  73 100  73 /  20  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  96  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  30
PORTALES........................  98  71  96  70 /  10  20  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  98  73  97  73 /  30  40  30  30
ROSWELL......................... 101  71  99  71 /  10  30  10  20
PICACHO.........................  95  62  94  63 /  30  50  20  20
ELK.............................  87  60  88  59 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-526-539.

&&

GUYER/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
508 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

NMZ501>540-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
508 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
CREATE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER AND AROUND RECENT BURN SCARS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SCATTERED SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT 1.888.386.7637 OR VIA THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ.

GUYER/KW