Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

486 
WGUS75 KABQ 192053
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
253 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NMC028-039-043-192100-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110719T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ALAMOS-RIO ARRIBA-SANDOVAL-
253 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL
SANDOVAL...SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL HAD  
LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT  
WAS DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT 
OF SERIOUS FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED.

THERE IS STILL HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM 
DEVELOPMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER AND NEAR THE LOS CONCHAS 
BURN SCAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LAT...LON 3610 10653 3614 10619 3584 10627 3570 10631
      3576 10656

$$

43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL STAY CENTERED
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO...ELONGATING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE U.S. TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FASHION TO
YESTERDAY...FAVORING THE WESTERN BORDER AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
THE STATE. STEERING FLOW WILL ALTER A BIT TODAY WITH STORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EXHIBITING FASTEST MOTION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHT
FIELDS IN THE NORTHEAST AND PWATS HOVERING CLOSER TO AN INCH IN
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN...BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK.

STEERING FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE...AND BECOME
ERRATIC ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST
BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED YET STILL ELONGATED INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BEST
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW
MEXICO...BUT ENOUGH SHOULD LINGER FOR RECYCLING. INCREASED
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LEAN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SANGRES AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY THERE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ARE EVEN PROGGED TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG IN SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST PER THE NAM12.

ON THURSDAY...SLIGHT UPTICK IN PWATS IN THE CENTRAL WILL HELP
STORM COVERAGE WITH CONTINUED CHAOTIC AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THE
HIGH WILL LOSE MORE GROUND OVER NEW MEXICO...AND LOWER HEIGHTS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS MUCH.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A QUASI-CLIMATOLOGICAL
PLACEMENT OF STORMS FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH STILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL ZONES.

AS ADVERTISED PREVIOUSLY...HEIGHT FIELDS LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER
NEW MEXICO INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...LIKELY FAVORING THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-40. THE HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITS PRESENCE
BY SUNDAY...BUT GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE PLACEMENT
DISCREPANCIES. A EUROPEAN SOLUTION WITH THE HIGH PARKED IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WOULD FAVOR A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE INTO
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...AND BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
THEY BOTH CONVERGE A BIT CLOSER TO CONSENSUS WITH THE HIGH LOCATED
BROADLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SHIFT ANY SEMBLANCE
OF A MONSOONAL PLUME INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA.

52

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEW MEXICO FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS...BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. KW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTROID LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPRAWL OUT ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT EFFECTIVELY
SHUNTING THE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. FOR TODAY...WE EXPECT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND HIGHLANDS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE
STRONG ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH MAY ENHANCE WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT. THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES FROM BEING ISSUED...HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER
BURN SCARS IS STILL POSSIBLE. MUCH THE SAME WILL BE IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEST TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHBOUND FROM OLD MEXICO. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENT OF TIME THE RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN TRENDS THE PAST
FEW MONTHS...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE DRY SOLUTION WORKED OUT
BETTER EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID FOR NEXT WEEK IS
ALSO UNCERTAIN AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGH TO THE EAST WITH BETTER
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHILE THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH CENTROID OVER THE
TOP OF NEW MEXICO KEEPING THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IN A MOISTURE
RECYCLING MODE.

EITHER SOLUTION STILL FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COVERAGE IS IN
QUESTION DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
CYCLE.

KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  94  65 /  20  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  86  52  90  53 /  30  30  20  20
CUBA............................  91  58  92  58 /  20  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  87  60  88  60 /  30  40  20  30
EL MORRO........................  83  58  85  56 /  30  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  89  63  88  62 /  20  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  85  61  86  59 /  30  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  94  67  93  66 /  20  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  83  50  83  50 /  30  30  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  65  85  65 /  10  20  20  20
PECOS...........................  86  61  87  60 /  10  10  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  87  51  86  52 /  20  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  79  44  78  46 /  30  20  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  83  44  80  46 /  30  30  40  30
TAOS............................  92  53  91  54 /  10  20  30  30
MORA............................  85  56  85  56 /  20  20  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  93  58  93  58 /  10  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  92  62  91  62 /  10  10  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  95  63  94  64 /  10  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  94  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  67  97  68 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  96  67  97  67 /  10  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  65  98  65 /  10  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  95  68  96  66 /  10  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  97  67  98  67 /  10  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  53  87  56 /  10  20  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  94  63  95  63 /  10  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  92  57  92  56 /  10  20  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  93  62  94  63 /  10  10  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  93  64  96  64 /  10  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  86  57  85  58 /  20  20  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  94  60  92  61 /  10  10  20  30
RATON...........................  98  59  96  60 /  10  10  20  30
SPRINGER........................  96  63  96  63 /  10  10  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  91  61  90  61 /  10  10  30  30
CLAYTON......................... 100  67  98  67 /   5   5  10  20
ROY.............................  97  64  94  65 /   5   5  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  99  70 100  71 /   5   5   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  98  68  99  69 /   5   5  10  20
TUCUMCARI....................... 102  71 102  71 /   5   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  99  71  99  71 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  99  70  99  71 /   5   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  99  71 101  72 /   5   5   5  10
ROSWELL......................... 100  72 101  72 /  10  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  95  64  95  64 /  10  20  10  20
ELK.............................  89  59  89  60 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

52/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NMZ501>540-201200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
531 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1258 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NMZ511-517-191930-
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-
1258 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SANDOVAL...EXTREME
SOUTHERN RIO ARRIBA AND NORTHWESTERN LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES THROUGH 130
PM MDT...

AT 1252 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF LOS ALAMOS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH...
CAPABLE OF BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH IN THIRTY MINUTES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 130 PM MDT.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
LAS CONCHAS FIRE.

STRONG FLOWS AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN ARROYOS...SMALL
STREAMS AND OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS. RAPID RUNOFF MAY ALSO OCCUR
IMMEDIATELY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM FROM WILDFIRE BURN SCARS.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 10646 3605 10619 3583 10631 3587 10649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 199DEG 7KT 3591 10640

DPORTER