Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

883 
WGUS75 KABQ 031956
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
156 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

NMC028-039-043-032045-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110703T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ALAMOS-RIO ARRIBA-SANDOVAL-
156 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
SANDOVAL...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL
LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES...

AT 148 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR JEMEZ 
SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CUBA. THE STORM PRODUCING 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS AREA INCLUDES WESTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE LAS CONCHAS FIRE BURN SCAR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY...
  RURAL EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY...
  RURAL EXTREME WEST CENTRAL LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOTH LOCALIZED AND DISTANT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FLOWS
IN ARROYOS AND OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS. RAINFALL OVER BURN SCAR 
AREAS MAY PRODUCE DEBRIS FLOWS WHICH BLOCK TRAILS AND ROADS AND MAY 
PLUG DRAINAGES.

ARROYOS...STREAMS AND RIVERS CAN BECOME RAGING KILLER CURRENTS IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES. KNOW WHERE HIGHER GROUND IS LOCATED.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...AND CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT 1-888-386-7637.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 10638 3560 10675 3584 10683 3601 10669
      3602 10640 3600 10641

$$

094 
WGUS75 KABQ 032036
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
236 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

NMC028-039-043-032045-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110703T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ALAMOS-RIO ARRIBA-SANDOVAL-
236 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
SANDOVAL...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL
LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

OVER THE LAS CONCHAS FIRE BURN SCAR...AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY 
RAINFALL MAY REMAIN SOAKED...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED DEBRIS FLOWS 
COVERING TRACKS AND TRAILS AND FILLING DRAINAGES.

LAT...LON 3564 10638 3560 10675 3584 10683 3601 10669
      3602 10640 3600 10641

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED SOCORRO
COUNTY TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS DRIFT TO THE WEST OVER
SOUTHERN CATRON COUNTY. TODAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY ACTIVE
DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH ABOUT 1.3-1.4 IN PRECIP WATER
INTO ARIZONA...WITH OVER AN INCH INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS
WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH AND THEN COULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CORNER
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH CENTER CIRCULATION. HAVE
TWEAKED POPS UPWARD FOR LOCALES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AS WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD CARRY
STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR MONDAY ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MEAN H7-H5
FLOW MIGHT LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST. SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING ALSO INDICATED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM BRINGS A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES ELONGATED FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEREFORE HAVE STRETCHED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THIS REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND...LEAVING THE WESTERN PORTION OF NEW MEXICO OPEN TO
A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
MOISTURE MAY BE IN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z.
THEREAFTER...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ONTO THE ADJACENT LOWLANDS THRU THE AFTN AND EVE. STORMS WILL MOVE
MORE WESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN NM...WHILE STORMS MOVING OFF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTNS WILL MOVE MORE SELY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. ANY
STORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS. MUCH OF
THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 03Z...BUT IT LIKELY A FEW
STORMS WILL PERSIST PAST 06Z. IN ADDITION...SMOKE MAY IMPACT AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO AREA WILDFIRES...INCLUDING AROUND KLAM.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAINLY FAIR RH RECOVERIES SO FAR THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME GOOD RH RECOVERIES ARE NOTED ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS YESTERDAY WERE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS DID RECEIVE SOME GOOD RAINS. EAGLE NEST
RECEIVED A WHOPPING 2.47 INCHES.

DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S THIS MORNING WILL MIX OUT
SOME THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF A MIX OF WET AND DRY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. DRIEST STORMS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NW. STORMS WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...THUS...STEERING MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
NM...AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF
DIRECTION HOWEVER...STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
THUS...SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND ATTENTION WILL AGAIN
NEED TO BE PAID TO AREA BURN SCARS.

CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...THUS DAILY ROUND OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER HIGH DOES ELONGATE BY
TUESDAY...AND SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE EAST AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY AND
FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NW. THIS BIT OF DRYING MAY START
AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A BACK
DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND USHER IN HIGHER OCTANE DEWPOINTS.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD NEXT WEEKEND...
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE TRANSITION TO MORE WET VS. DRY STORMS MAY BE COMPLETED.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MINIMUM DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  97  64  96  65 /  20  20  10  10
DULCE...........................  87  50  87  52 /  20  30  20  20
CUBA............................  88  54  88  56 /  20  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  91  52  90  54 /  20  20  10  20
EL MORRO........................  87  51  87  52 /  30  30  20  20
GRANTS..........................  91  58  91  57 /  20  30  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  88  52  88  52 /  20  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  94  62  94  62 /  20  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  80  49  80  49 /  30  30  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  83  68  83  65 /  20  30  30  20
PECOS...........................  81  59  81  59 /  30  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  53  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  73  45  73  44 /  40  30  30  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  74  47  74  47 /  40  40  20  20
TAOS............................  86  53  87  52 /  30  30  30  20
MORA............................  76  56  77  56 /  20  30  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  90  59  91  59 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  86  61  87  59 /  30  30  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  62  90  60 /  30  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  68  89  67 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  71  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  65  93  63 /  10  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  94  64  94  63 /  20  20  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  64  96  64 /  10  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  92  66  92  66 /  20  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  96  67  96  67 /  10  20  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  85  59  84  59 /  30  20  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  88  65  88  66 /  20  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  55  89  56 /  20  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  59  85  59 /  10  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  89  62  89  62 /  20  10  20  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  92  64  92  64 /  20  10  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  83  56  83  56 /  30  20  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  87  58  87  58 /  20  20  10   5
RATON...........................  88  58  89  59 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  86  60  87  60 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  57  85  55 /  20  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  93  66  95  66 /  10  20   5   5
ROY.............................  90  64  92  64 /  10  20  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  94  67  94  65 /  10  10   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  94  68  94  67 /  10  10   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  97  68  97  68 /   5  10   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  92  65  93  65 /   5   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  93  67  94  67 /   5   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  67  95  67 /   5  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  96  68  96  68 /   5   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  91  60  89  60 /  10   5  10   5
ELK.............................  84  57  86  57 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

NMZ501>540-041200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES
COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY
RAINS FALL ON RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.

SMOKE FROM THE LAS CONCHAS FIRE MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS WHERE
TERRAIN INDUCED WINDS TRANSPORT THE SMOKE...AS WELL AS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FIRE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT 1.888.386.7637 OR ONLINE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABQ.