Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT MON OCT 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE TURNING INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. ANY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN A
DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR FAIRLY EQUAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BUT AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE LOW POSITIONED
JUST OFF BAJA SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY WITH DECREASING POPS NORTH AND EAST. THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE LEFT OUT OF THE ACTION ENTIRELY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT I DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING THERE. INSTABILITY
DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE SO JUST WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL ZONES. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
MEXICAN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WRAPPING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY THERE...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...CLOSEST TO THE LOW CENTER.
MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN ARIZONA
AND THEN NEW MEXICO. MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY DRY THINGS OUT HOWEVER
AND THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
MAX TEMPS AT SOME SITES BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE AND I
GENERALLY WENT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM...BUT THE NEXT ONE IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE ECMWF IS
QUITE A BIT STRONGER...SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THE LOW REACHING THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY AND TRAVERSING THE MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN THE FIRST TO CATCH ON TO REALITY MANY TIMES...SO FELT
COMPELLED TO GIVE IT SOME WEIGHT...BUT NOT TOO MUCH SINCE IT IS
STILL AN OUTLIER. WITH ALL THAT SAID...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS GRIDS. EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE INTERESTING
AS VERY FAST AND ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER THE GREAT BASIN /GFS/ OR OUR ENTIRE AREA /ECMWF/. THIS COULD
BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE SIERRA CREST...AS WELL AS VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEST WINDS. DUE TO POSITION UNCERTAINTY DID
NOT RAISE WIND SPEEDS TOO MUCH...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL POP NEAR THE
AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTER THIS EVENING...RAIN
APPEARS UNLIKELY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIGHT...AND CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CEILINGS
AND A MUCH GREATER RAIN THREAT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTH TO THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HARRISON/MORGAN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
534 AM PDT MON OCT 18 2010

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-190700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
534 AM PDT MON OCT 18 2010 /534 AM MST MON OCT 18 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND
INTERSECTIONS MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES
AND INTERSECTIONS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PIERCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 PM PDT MON OCT 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TORNADO          12 ESE CEDAR HILLS      35.12N 113.58W
10/18/2010                   MOHAVE             AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS THAT A TORNADO TORE ROOF TILES OFF HIS
            HOUSE NEAR MOUNTAIN TRAIL AND PINTO IN KINGMAN. PD
            OFFICER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD AT 0515 PM MST IN THE AREA.
            POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO ANOTHER HOME NEAR OMAHA STREET IN
            KINGMAN. ONLY TWO HOMES KNOWN TO HAVE DAMAGE.

&&

LJENSEN