Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
542 PM FRI AUG 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED EAST ACROSS
ARIZONA TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT AND GRIDS ON THE WAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS THIS EVENING...THEN LET UP SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 20-25
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND DRY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TSRA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFT/EVE
IN FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. FOR THIS EVENING ONLY THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER CIGS/VSBY
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE AWAY FROM
TSRA...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL LESSEN UP
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS POSSIBLE. LOCAL
AREAS OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR DRY LAKE BEDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
315 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR
HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST. TRIMMED BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE EAST OF
MOHAVE COUNTY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATE THIS WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL THE
THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN FACT...THE GUSTINESS TODAY IS
JUST THE PRECURSOR. WITH WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO BE EVEN STRONGER
SATURDAY A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT THE
ZONES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME ON SUNDAY MOST AREAS EXPECT IN MOHAVE COUNTY. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...THE MAIN ISSUE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
LATEST MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE GFS SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS I KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE BUT TRIMMED BACK POPS ELSEWHERE. BY
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BUT
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER VARIES BY MODEL WHICH ULTIMATELY
SHOW A BIG SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA
WITH THE ECMWF VERY DRY AND THE GFS DECENTLY MOIST. I DID TRIM BACK
POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER...BUT WE HAVE IN 10 POPS
OR GREATER IN ALL AREAS SOUTH OF I-15. THROUGH FRIDAY RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT AND WHILE THURSDAY MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE GET PULLED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IN THE AREA CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THE GREATEST THIS FAR OUT DUE TO SUBTLE SHIFTS IN WHERE THE
RIDGE IS CENTERED AT. BY NEXT WEEKEND AN UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN ON
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERLY FLOW MAY START TO DRY OUT THINGS IN THE WESTERN CWFA. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND STAY THERE ON
FRIDAY. THUS TRIPLE DIGITS WILL MAKE A RETURN IN MOST OF THE LOWER
DESERT VALLEYS.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS THIS EVENING...THEN LET UP SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 20-25
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND DRY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TSRA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFT/EVE
IN FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER CIGS/VSBY WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE AWAY FROM
TSRA...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL LESSEN UP
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS POSSIBLE. LOCAL
AREAS OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR DRY LAKE BEDS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
USHER IN DRIER AIR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEVADA ZONES 460 AND 462. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO
45 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEVADA AND ARIZONA SO A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN NEVADA ZONES. AS FOR MOHAVE
COUNTY. IT WILL BE WINDY ON SATURDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COUNTY ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 15 PERCENT. IF THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
SOONER THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE RED FLAG WARNING BEING
EXPANDED EAST INTO MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NVZ460>465.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NVZ014>022.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ460-462.
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ001-003-036.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ522.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ523-524.
&&

MORGAN/JACQUES/PIERCE/STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
519 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

NVZ014>020-022-280330-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
519 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN LOOKED FOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ527-NVZ021-280330-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
519 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010 /519 AM MST FRI AUG 27 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE EASTER BORDER ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO POSSIBLY
OVER 40 MPH. GUSTY WINDS LOOKED FOR AGAIN ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ519>526-280330-
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
519 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH LOCAL AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE MOJAVE DESERT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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