High Wind Watch 10, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 AM PDT TUE JUN 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
STARTING ON FRIDAY DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE...HARDLY NOTICEABLE ON THE 500 MB
VORTICITY FORECAST FROM THE MODELS HAS CREATED SOME ENHANCED CIRRUS
THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OF BARSTOW TO NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. MODELS PUSH THIS FEATURE OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOW
DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RH PROGS OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTRA MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS. 24 HOUR
TEMPS ARE DOWN FROM YESTERDAY DUE TO SYNOPTIC COOLING BUT THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY TRIM A DEGREE OR SO OFF
THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE LATEST MDCAR
SOUNDINGS OUT OF MCCARRAN STILL SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS
WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS. SO OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 336 AM TUE JUN 8 2010/...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND NO
REAL CHANGES WERE MADE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
SO CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH.

THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING
EXTREME HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST TODAY GIVING WAY TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW. YESTERDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURE AT MCCARRAN WAS 106
DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE DEGREE BELOW THE EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA FOR
THE DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER TODAY...AND A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME SORT OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS
THAN YESTERDAY WHERE TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWED UP IN EXTREME
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. REALLY DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH OF ANYTHING.
WITH THE LOWER ELEVATION BEING QUITE DRY THIS IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING RUNS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND INCLUDES THE EXPECTED WEEKEND STORM. MODELS
STILL AGREE ON DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A DRAMATIC FALL BY SATURDAY WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR CURRENT MORNING LOWS. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD COOL TO LOWEST LEVELS SEEN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. LIMITED
FORECASTED MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF THIS STORM BUT INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH JUST HOW THIS
WILL PLAY OUT. DUE TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND RATHER QUICKLY AND COULD BE BACK TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT NORTH
WINDS COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE
DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON AVERAGE. SKY COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS TO CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED WINDS AT KDAG AND OVER THE
SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. SKY COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RH VALUES BELOW 15% ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ARIZONA ZONE 102 THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW FOR THE SAME LOCATION.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE WINDS LOOK
MORE FAVORABLE HERE THAN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MAIN ISSUE HERE
IS DON/T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST FOR 6 HOURS...THUS NO WATCH OR
WARNING WAS ISSUED.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. NOTICED THIS AREA HAD TWO LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON MONDAY. THE INSTABILITY IS LESS TODAY AND BARELY
NEGATIVE...THUS DON/T FEEL LIKE THIS WILL REALLY BE A CONCERN.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     AZZ102.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&

STACHELSKI/81/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

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