Excessive Heat Warning 2, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
923 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGHTENS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOWED BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE
CIRCULATION MOVING WEST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WAS PROVIDING A
LITTLE LIFT. SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH VERY NICELY
REFLECTS THE SHARP POP GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS
MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8 KTS AND NIGHT TIME WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 14K FEET POSSIBLE
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 110 OR
HIGHER TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
FOLLOW LOCAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE FEW TO SCT IN
COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF A DAGGETT-PEACH SPRINGS LINE.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HOT
TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AREA WIDE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
315 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE ROTATING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST. FROM LAS VEGAS NORTHWARD THE ONLY
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SIERRA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LEADING TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THOSE DAYS. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
THIS PATTERN IS BASICALLY A VERY LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN BUT
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT TAME. GENERALLY
FORECASTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONTINUED
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TEMPERATURES TO CARRY ON INTO SUNDAY. MONDAY
WILL SEE THE RIDGE START RETREATING EAST AS A WEST COAST TROUGH
APPROACHES AND BRINGS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME DRIER AIR AND
LOWERING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED EAST AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
DRY LINE TYPE BOUNDARY TO FORM IN THE EAST PART OF THE CWA AND BE
THE FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER CONVECTION WE GET
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EAST AND WILL BE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE DAILY UNDER CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW. ONE FINAL CONCERN IS
FOR WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
WINDS COULD REACH BREEZY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...BUT FOR NOW DO NOT
FORESEE ANY WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
MORNING AND NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY AND GENERALLY BE 10-14
KNOTS OR LESS. LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...UNDER 10 KNOTS...AND BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER...IF ANY...WILL BE FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND
14K FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 110 OR HIGHER TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
FOLLOW LOCAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE FEW TO SCT IN
COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF A DAGGETT-PEACH SPRINGS LINE.
VERY HOT TEMPERATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AREA WIDE.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NVZ016-017-020>022.
AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ002-003-036.
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ520-522>527.
&&

MORGAN/SALMEN/HARRISON/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

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