Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
LABOR DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF TUCSON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM. ALSO...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON...AND
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS S-SW OF TUCSON ACROSS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
THE SRN PORTION OF CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY
WHERE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD BE QUITE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY NEAR-
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

BASED ON THE 03/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...TRIMMED POPS THIS
WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE. HAVE DEPICTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MTNS...
AND DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SUN. THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN LABOR DAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. ALSO...A
WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN BAJA/
NWRN SONORA REGION MON-TUE. WILL CONFINE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE
COUNTIES WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

WED-FRI...03/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION. WILL OPT FOR DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE AS
MODERATE-STRONG SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SHUNT MOISTURE WELL EWD.

CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN
SOME DAILY MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPS STARTING LABOR DAY AND
CONTINUING THRU THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 00Z SUNDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 5-8K FT AGL
INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SKC.
ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EWD/SWD INTO THIS EVENING
AND MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KTUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS THRU SAT AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
952 AM MST FRI SEP 3 2010

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-040300-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
952 AM MST FRI SEP 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THIS DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS A RISK
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LABOR DAY. THEREAFTER...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-040300-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
952 AM MST FRI SEP 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE HEAT AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN 104 AND 108 DEGREES IN THE LOWER
DESERTS. THIS IS UNUSUALLY HOT FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO PROPER HEAT
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

REMAINING HOT SATURDAY SO PROPER HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
333 PM MST FRI SEP 3 2010

AZZ035-032315-
COCHISE COUNTY AZ-
333 PM MST FRI SEP 3 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM MST...

AT 330 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF BENSON NEAR INTERSTATE 10...OR
25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLCOX...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENSON...ST. DAVID AND SAINT
DAVID.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3186 11039 3217 11042 3208 11004 3190 11007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 100DEG 10KT 3200 11016

MEYER