Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Tucson, AZ

158 
WWUS55 KTWC 162216
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

AZC019-162245-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-100716T2245Z/
PIMA AZ-
316 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM
MST/445 PM MDT/ FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 311 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ONE STORM WAS BETWEEN SANTA CRUZ AND PIA 
OIK WITH THE SECOND STORM WAS NEAR GU VO. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING 
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

LAT...LON 3177 11246 3181 11260 3208 11268 3208 11236
      3189 11220 3176 11244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 057DEG 9KT 3191 11244

$$

852 
WWUS55 KTWC 162245
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
345 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

AZC019-162253-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-100716T2245Z/
PIMA AZ-
345 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WILL 
EXPIRE AT 345 PM MST...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ IN THE TOHONO 
O'ODHAM NATION THROUGH 4 PM. THUS THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 
AT 345 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3177 11246 3181 11260 3208 11268 3208 11236
      3189 11220 3176 11244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 057DEG 9KT 3187 11251

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE WON OUT SO FAR TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUN FROM 3 PM TO SUNSET...BUT MAYBE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE.
THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHERE AMPLE HEATING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND HAS FORMED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT HEADING INTO THE EVENING BEING
FLASH FLOODING. STRONG FLOW AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CLEARLY INDICATED
BY VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
WILL TRANSITION INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING AND
COULD STILL ORGANIZE A FEW STORMS. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ALREADY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM NEW MEXICO MOVING INTO THE AREA. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE 40-60 PCT RANGE.
FLOW AND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE ON SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER NEW
MEXICO MCS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND COULD ONCE AGAIN DELIVER
SUPPRESSING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CLOUDS 12-15K FT AGL. ISOLD TSRA/SHRA THROUGH 00Z. SCT
TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD
DECKS MAINLY 10-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS...ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 KTS VICINITY
STRONGEST TSTMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON.
BULK OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM LAST EVENINGS NEW MEXICO
MCS REMAINING QUITE THICK OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
IS HOLDING TEMPS BACK SOME THIS MORNING DESPITE ANOTHER VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT(THE TUS OVERNIGHT LOW WAS 85 DEGS). MONSOON HIGH CENTER
HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A MORE DOMINANT CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING UNDER THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. THE CORE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN
CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A TAIL OF ENERGY EXTENDING NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS MORNINGS TUS SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD COOLING
AROUND 500 MB...WITH THE TEMP NOW DOWN TO -7 DEG C. WE HAVE ALSO
SEEN SOME WARMING IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER. SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST A
HIGH TODAY OF 103...OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOOTS FOR 104. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP US BELOW THESE LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF MAX HIGH. 12Z BUF NAM SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
LACKING A BIT IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF ONLY 100 J/KG(NAM SUGGESTS
500 MB TEMPS WARM TO -4 C)...MY MODIFIED TUS SOUNDING WITH A HIGH OF
102 DEGS AND DEWPOINT OF 52 DEG IS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC YIELDING
AROUND 400 J/KG. THE MAIN DETERRENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING AND AN INVERSION BETWEEN
450-400 MB AND THESE ARE TIED TOGETHER SINCE STRONGER HEATING WILL
OVERCOME THIS INVERSION. WIND PROFILE ALREADY SHOWING BETTER FLOW
WITH NE 15-20 KTS BETWEEN 500-400 MB. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THE BEST FLOW WILL
BE SEEN BETWEEN 5PM-2AM WITH 20-35 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 600-500 MB.
TODAYS ACTIVITY IS TIED VERY MUCH TO HOW MUCH CURRENT CLOUD COVER
BREAKS AND THINS...WE WILL NEED TO WARM INTO THE 100-104 DEG RANGE
TO REALLY GET ACTIVITY GOING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
HOW THE CLOUD COVER WILL EVOLVE. THERE IS CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...BUT LOTS OF CLOUDINESS OVER
THE SOUTHERN RIM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE EAST TO WEST LESS 10-15 MPH.
CURRENT POPS REFLECT ELEVATED MONSOON LEVEL WILL NOT ADJUST GIVEN
EXISTING UNCERTAINTY.

SATURDAY...A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH
EASTERLY 20-30 KTS BETWEEN 700-400 MB. AGAIN LEFT OVER DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN ACTIVITY...BUT WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND FLOW WOULD EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY WITH ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW UPTURN IN POPS(40-60 PCT).
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHOEMAKER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1249 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

AZZ019-029>035-172000-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1249 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE TODAY...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING.
THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GREENLEE AND
WESTERN PIMA CONUTIES...THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SURFACE
HEATING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
ELEVATED MONSOON SEASON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1259 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

AZZ031-032-162045-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION AZ-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AZ-
1259 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM
MST...

AT 1254 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSA...OR NEAR
VENTANA AND HICKIWAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HICKIWAN.

LAT...LON 3253 11247 3252 11229 3245 11223 3220 11255
      3240 11273
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 053DEG 12KT 3247 11238

CS