Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK
CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEREAFTER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT LATER IN
THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REDEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE  A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...USING VARIOUS
SOURCES...IN THE 1.70"-2" RANGE. DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WAS AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER
PORTIONS OF GRAHAM/GREENLEE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AND SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. ALOFT THERE IS AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SONORA MEXICO WITH CENTER OF
CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF HERMOSILLO MOVING NNW. QUESTION THIS
MORNING IS...WILL THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH KEEP
THE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND LONGER WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE AT...THUS
DELAYING HEATING. HOWEVER AREAS THAT DO HAVE THE SUNSHINE WILL HEAT
UP NICELY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA WIDE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH DIDN'T WORK OUT...AND I DON'T WANT TO CRY WOLF AGAIN...MIGHT
NEED ANOTHER ONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
LESS AREAL COVERAGE. STILL GOT SOME TIME TO THINK THIS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...LEFTOVER BKN-OVC DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ABOVE 12K FT AGL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES
MAINLY 8-12K FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE THE EVENING. EXPECT SCT
TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 19Z TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1155 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

AZZ019-029>035-180700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1155 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. AFTER A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORESEEN NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1227 PM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

AZZ031-032-172015-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION AZ-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AZ-
1227 PM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
MST...

AT 1215 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN TOHONO OODHAM
NATION...EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HICKIWAN TO NEAR GU VO...OR ABOUT
20 MILES EAST OF AJO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WHY...GUNSIGHT...AND KUAKATCH.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY. MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3208 11294 3251 11271 3252 11237 3199 11262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 125DEG 8KT 3235 11259

PYTLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
139 PM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     TSTM WND GST     AJO                     32.39N 112.87W
08/17/2010  E70 MPH          PIMA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT LEAST 70 MPH WINDS. PEA SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED ALONG
            WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

PYTLAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 PM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

AZZ031-172200-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AZ-
212 PM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM
MST...

AT 206 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ON THE FAR EAST END OF ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL
MONUMENT...OR 48 MILES WEST OF SELLS...MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AND LUKEVILLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3195 11306 3218 11295 3207 11260 3184 11268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 095DEG 7KT 3200 11270

PYTLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE AUG 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S AJO                 32.37N 112.87W
08/17/2010  M91 MPH          PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 0.80 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 45 MINUTES.

&&

PYTLAK