Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
MAY TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED ACROSS SE AZ
WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. MOISTURE AXIS LIES OVER WRN
CWFA WITH WEDGE OF DRIER AIR OVER SW NM IMPINGING WESTWARD. IF THE
DRIER AIR HAMPERS TSTM COVERAGE TO ANY GREAT EXTENT THE LIFT
COINCIDENT WITH DEFORMATION FROM NM/CHIHUAHUA UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
STRENGTHEN STORMS THAT DO FORM. IN FACT...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS TODAY...ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED.  WHILE STORMS OVER THE RIM WILL PROGRESS
WNW...NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
AFTERNOON TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS...CULMINATING IN AN MCS STRADDLING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF ALREADY JUICY AIR WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
AND WITH STORMS MOVING INTO HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...PERSISTENCE
AND NUMBER OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WARRANTS AT LEAST HIGH END
SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS. TO PICK ONE AREA AT THIS POINT...EXPECT
THE BEST RAIN ROUGHLY FROM NOGALES TO SELLS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD...MOISTURE SHOULD EXPAND
FARTHER NORTH WITH EXPECT EVEN MORE ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. THE HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF OVER AZ TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS.  GUIDANCE NOT QUITE
PICKING UP ON THAT TREND YET...ALTHOUGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCT TSRA ARE FORECAST AFT 20Z WITH CLOUD BASES
OF 8-11KFT.  EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT OBSCURATIONS IN TSRA
WITH ISOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS 40-50 KTS.
SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z...ESPECIALLY S AND W OF KTUS.
EXCEPT FOR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

KD/GS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
938 AM MST SUN AUG 15 2010

AZZ019-029>035-160700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
938 AM MST SUN AUG 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH VALLEY
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 TO 110 DEGREES. PROPER HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN OF NEARLY 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OVER THE
RIM COUNTRY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING AND WIND DAMAGE TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR DIRECTLY TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

KD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
342 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2010

AZZ029-030-152330-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AZ-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AZ-
342 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN PINAL AND
EXTREME WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MST...

AT 332 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ARAVAIPA CANYON WILDERNESS ABOUT 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF MAMMOTH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ARAVAIPA CREEK PRESERVE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. BE ALERT TO SUDDEN RISES IN WATER LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3285 11073 3313 11061 3296 11029 3276 11044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 119DEG 8KT 3289 11048

PYTLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
401 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             5 ENE CORONA DE TUCSON  31.97N 110.69W
08/15/2010  M0.25 INCH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PYTLAK