Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS QUICK RISING...QUICK FALLING...HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL REPORTS
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN OF THE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING AND FLOWING WATER
IN WASHES VARIETY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW
NEAR GLOBE. THIS LOW IS PROGGED BY THE NAM TO DROP BACK TO THE SOUTH
OVER TUCSON OVERNIGHT AND COULD PROVIDE ENHANCED STORM AND HEAVY
RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUMPED OVERNIGHT POPS UP TO REFLECT THIS.
HOWEVER...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER BY EVENING SHIFT IF
STORMS TO OUR NORTH ORGANIZE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT
EASTERN PIMA AND COCHISE COUNTY TO SEE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...AS PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES. LEFT OVER MCV
WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF WILCOX WITH CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING
BETWEEN CASCABEL AND SAFFORD. ANOTHER MCV CENTER WAS IN THE PHOENIX
AREA. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND EDGING NORTH INTO COCHISE AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. POCKET OF SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE BEHIND
DISTURBANCE RUNNING FROM YUMA TO HERMOSILLO...BUT MAY STAY SOUTH OF
THE AREA TODAY.  THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MORE SURFACE
HEATING FROM TUCSON TO SAFFORD AND SOUTH. TEMP ALREADY RUNNING 5
DEGS WARMER AT TUS VERSUS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE BOUNDARY ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND MAY LEAD TO A
MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 12Z TUS SOUNDING SHOWS
COOLING BETWEEN 500-300 MB...DRIER AIR ALSO SHOWING ABOVE 450 MB.

NAM INDICATES MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR GLOBE AT 00Z...WITH UPPER
HIGH RECONSOLIDATING OVER NEVADA. UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA-SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE WEEKEND WITH EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING. AT LEAST CLIMO LEVEL MONSOON POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING. CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY 8-12K FT AGL THRU THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BASES AROUND 3-5K FT AGL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
VICINITY STRONGER TSTMS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
HOWEVER WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45-50 KTS VICINITY STRONGEST TSTMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1020 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

AZZ019-029>035-241730-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1020 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
123 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

AZZ029-030-232100-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AZ-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AZ-
123 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN PINAL AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MST...

AT 120 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GLOBE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAN CARLOS RESERVOIR.

IT IS NOT SAFE TO BE ON THE WATER DURING A THUNDERSTORM. A HARD TOP
VEHICLE IS A SAFE LOCATION TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM LIGHTNING.
BETTER YET...IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE
SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3339 11017 3305 11037 3311 11057 3317 11055
      3317 11054 3319 11051 3320 11042 3326 11045
      3339 11045 3341 11041 3341 11035 3344 11032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 201DEG 13KT 3317 11043

DROZD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
353 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

AZZ035-232345-
COCHISE COUNTY AZ-
353 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM MST...

AT 348 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF BENSON...OR 28 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WILLCOX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...I-10 AND TEXAS CANYON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3220 11005 3195 11007 3200 11038 3218 11036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 240DEG 7KT 3209 11026

MEYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
428 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 W MESCAL              31.98N 110.57W
07/23/2010  M1.02 INCH       PIMA               AZ   MESONET

            AUTOMATED RAIN GAGE ON I-10 AT CIENEGA CREEK. RAIN FELL
            IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES. 2 TO 3 FEET OF STREAMFLOW ALSO NOTED
            IN UPPER CIENEGA CREEK.

&&

PYTLAK

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