Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUL 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE DON'T HAVE TO WORK THROUGH NEARLY AS MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUD THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL ADD TO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE MORNING SOUNDING IS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT ITS WETTER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR.
AN EASY AND EARLY START FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PUSHING EASILY INTO
EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GOOD SCENARIO FOR OUTFLOW TO PUSH INTO
LOWER DESERTS LATER AS WELL. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THE NEXT 18
HOURS WILL BE THE BUSIEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

THE HIGH CENTER IS STILL PARKED A LITTLE TO CLOSE JUST TO OUR
NORTH...SO MID LEVELS NOT QUITE AS COOL AS ONE MIGHT LIKE...AND THE
FLOW IS STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS A CONCERN AS WELL AS WET MICROBURSTS.

THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD NEXT WEEK WILL STILL KEEP US IN A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS MEXICO IS A BUSY PLACE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. SO...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
BUT NOTHING TO POINT AT AS A PARTICULAR ENHANCEMENT EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW UPSTREAM AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING. CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY 8-12K FT
AGL THRU THE PERIOD...LOWER WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY UNDER
STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WIND THRU SUNDAY MORNING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS... ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 KTS VICINITY
STRONGEST TSTMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1020 AM MST SAT JUL 17 2010

AZZ019-029>035-181400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1020 AM MST SAT JUL 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...ALLOWING STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
152 PM MST SAT JUL 17 2010

AZZ035-172130-
COCHISE COUNTY AZ-
152 PM MST SAT JUL 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MST...

AT 142 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOMBSTONE TO
12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SIERRA VISTA...AND MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SIERRA VISTA...HUACHUCA
CITY...CHARLESTON...NICKSVILLE...FAIRBANK...RAMSEY CANYON PRESERVE...
FORT HUACHUCA AND WHETSTONE.

LAT...LON 3180 10991 3134 10993 3136 11044 3181 11044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 100DEG 20KT 3172 11012 3149 11018

MEYER