Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Tucson, AZ

564 
WGUS75 KTWC 310410
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

AZC003-019-023-310600-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100731T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
910 PM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MST FOR
EASTERN PIMA...NORTHERN SANTA CRUZ AND WESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES...

AT 854 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY 
RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. 

IN EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN IN REDINGTON 
PASS AREA AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO FOUR INCHES MAY 
HAVE FALLEN. SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE TANQUE VERDE CREEK...AQUA 
CALIENTE WASH AND RINCON CREEK. ADDITIONALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOW IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH VAIL IN THE PANTANO WASH. 

FURTHER WEST...SIGNIFICANT FLOW IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE BRAWLEY 
WASH WHILE FURTHER EAST STREAMS AND CREEKS DRAINING INTO THE SAN 
PEDRO RIVER ARE LIKELY HAVING HEAVY FLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 11151 3242 11067 3244 11001 3159 10999
      3158 11149

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ACTING ON DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAILY CROPS
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. VERY HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING
AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE RIM COUNTRY AND WC NM
MOVING SWWD AT FAIRLY GOOD PACE. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS OVER SONORA
ADVANCING WWD. HOWEVER...OVER THE BULK OF SE AZ CONVECTION SHOWING
LITTLE SIGNS OF LIFE.  GLANCE OUT THE WINDOW GERNALLY REVEALS ONLY
FAIRLY FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS.  SO...ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
RELOADING TODAY. WHILE MOISTURE STILL ABUNDANT AND STORMS WILL STILL
PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE AREAS OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING HEAVY
RAIN...GREENLEE AND EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...DID NOT GET HIT AS
HARD AS OTHER AREAS LAST NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING TO GET IN
ON MOST OF THEIR RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT STORM
INTENSITIES WILL PERSIST AFTER SUNSET DESPITE UPPER SUPPORT FROM
DIVERGENCE NW OF UPPER CIRCULATION.

ON SATURDAY...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FULLY RECHARGED WITH A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE STORMS. POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED
FURTHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM GOING FORECAST.

AS UPPER SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD...OUR FLOW TURNS MORE
SWLY...WHICH MAY BEGIN A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEXT
WEEK BUT THINK ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
DECENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY.  FEW CLOUDS AND
STORMS MID WEEK ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HOTTER TEMPS...WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS FORECAST TO RETURN TO TUCSON.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD BY 23Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. CIGS AS LOW
AS 1K AGL AND VSBYS UNDER 1 MILE WITH HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS EXCEPT
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT FROM 06Z TO 15Z. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

DROZD/KAHLER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1114 AM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

AZZ019-029>035-310700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1114 AM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND COULD AGAIN CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AND BASINS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY. SOME STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY
DECREASE AFTER MONDAY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DROZD

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
326 PM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

AZZ029-302300-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AZ-
326 PM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MST...

AT 321 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAN MANUEL...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3258 11070 3268 11074 3273 11066 3262 11058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 070DEG 3KT 3266 11067