Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Tucson, AZ

119 
WGUS75 KTWC 272138
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2010

AZC019-272300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-100727T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
238 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 228 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE SAHUARITA 
AND SAN JAVIER MISSION AREAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO GREEN VALLEY. 
RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE WIDESPREAD IN 
THIS REGION WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES NEAR THE SAN JAVIER MISSION 
WEST OF I-19. FLASH FLOODING OF NORMALLY DRY RIVERS AND WASHES 
INCLUDING THE FRANCO WASH IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR SHORTLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING 
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 11122 3211 11093 3204 11070 3183 11073
      3185 11101 3190 11138

$$

GL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT 500
MB HIGH CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND 300 MB HIGH JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL SONORA AND MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OTHER MAJOR PLAYER IS A LARGE UPPER
LOW/PVD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THAT IS MOVING TO OUR WEST AND
WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER A LITTLE LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING
CAME IN QUITE JUICY WITH 1.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER COURTESY
OF A GULF SURGE THAT HAS INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS PIMA/SE PINAL/SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UP TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE ARE MAINLY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN...BUT FLOODING HAS BEEN MINOR THUS FAR AS THESE STORMS
CONTINUE MOVE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE
MAIN CONCERN HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING IS
WHETHER THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS INTO
THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EVEN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN WORDING THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT NOT FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER WE ARE FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE DESERTS.
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND THE UNCERTAINTY WILL GO
WITH JUST ABOVE CLIMO POPS. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING IT IN QUICKER THAN THE
NAM. THUS...THE NAM DEPICTS MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWEST OFF
THE RIM WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW.
REGARDLESS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WE SHOULD BE IN A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR ENHANCED LIFT WITH A CONTINUED ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN THURSDAY. WITH THE LOW OVER ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BY LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WILL KEEP A STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KTUS. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE 7-11K FT...BUT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN HEAVY
RAIN. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL BE LESS THAN 15
KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS NEAR THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.  NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1110 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2010

AZZ019-029>035-280700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1110 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
156 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2010

AZZ033-272145-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY AZ-
156 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
MST...

AT 151 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAHUARITA...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREEN
VALLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAHUARITA AND SAN XAVIER
MISSION.

LAT...LON 3193 11126 3218 11108 3196 11069 3182 11080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 126DEG 8KT 3197 11094

GL