Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

613 
WGUS75 KTWC 190137
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
637 PM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

AZC003-190215-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100719T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
637 PM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MST FOR
NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 632 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY  
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AREA OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL 
EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF WILLCOX...TO BOWIE...TO SAN SIMON AND 
ALSO SOUTHEAST OF WILLCOX ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 186. 

RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN THIS AREA SHOWED THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN WITHIN THIS AREA. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS 
SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 10992 3243 10906 3205 10906 3195 10954
      3203 10993

$$

594 
WGUS75 KTWC 190219
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
719 PM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

AZC003-190226-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100719T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
719 PM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY...

AT 715 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAD DIMINISHED WITH 
ONLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINING IN THE WARNING AREA. 

THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED...THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING FOR NORTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
HOWEVER...PONDING OF WATER WILL CONTINUE IN LOW SPOTS FOR THE NEXT 
HOUR OR SO.  

LAT...LON 3243 10992 3243 10906 3205 10906 3195 10954
      3203 10993

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY AFTER
A RATHER BUSY 24 HOURS WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WE MIGHT NOT BUT QUITE AS UNSTABLE WITH SOME
SLIGHT (VERY SLIGHT) MID LEVEL WARMING. OVERALL A DECENTLY ACTIVE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL EXPECTED...PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS YESTERDAY WITH LESS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
SEVERE NOT AS MUCH A CONCERN BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH RAINFALL
RATES.

OTHERWISE ITS LATE JULY AND YEAH...SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE. AS
THE HIGH BACKS OFF AND RECONSOLIDATES EAST OF US EXPECT SOME MODEST
MID LEVEL COOLING AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO STILL BE
PLENTY MOIST WITH EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES IN THE FLOW TO HELP FOCUS
STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. ONE SUCH IMPULSE COULD MAKE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY A RATHER BUSY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY 8-12K FT AGL...ALTHOUGH BASES
AROUND 3-6K FT AGL WITH REDUCED VSBYS VICINITY STRONGER TSTMS.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...WITH WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 KTS VICINITY STRONGEST TSTMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1052 AM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

AZZ019-029>035-191400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1052 AM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A KINK IN THE WIND FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
SERVE AS AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS THEY PUSH WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO GRAHAM AND EASTERN PINAL
COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH CAN PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN
A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1249 PM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

AZZ019-030-182030-
NORTHERN GREENLEE AZ-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AZ-
1249 PM MST SUN JUL 18 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENLEE AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MST...

AT 1242 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF HANNAGAN MEADOW MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HANNAGAN MEADOW AND ROSE PEAK.

LAT...LON 3361 10912 3338 10935 3364 10952 3379 10910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 060DEG 13KT 3371 10918

MEYER