Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
PERIOD AT THE MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KXNA AND
KFYV THIS EVENING DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING MCS OVER MO HAS SETTLED ACROSS
EXTREME NERN OK SSEWRD INTO WRN AR. DEEP CU FIELD EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THIS WEAKENED BOUNDARY. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR MCS MOVING INTO ERN MO ATTM IS PUSHING SWRD
INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES TO
CWA...AGITATED CU FIELD EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LATEST
MESOANALYSES SUGGESTING HIGH INSTABILITY/LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT...BELIEVE
LOW POPS CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED INTO THIS EVENING FAR ERN
OK/NWRN AR.

EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WE UPGRADED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING THROUGH MONDAY AND EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR. RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL SEVERAL DAYS AGO ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH
PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE EVIDENT IN 12Z 850 MB ANALYSIS IS
OFFSETTING TYPICAL DIURNAL MIXING TO SOME DEGREE AND SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE HOLDING IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS RESULTING IN APPARENT TEMPS IN
THE 105-109F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREA. STRONG
INSOLATION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRY SOIL MOISTURE
AND THUS WE THINK THIS EFFECT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BUT IN THE MEANTIME HEDGED DEWPOINT TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE VALUES AND TRIMMED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM NERN OK/NWRN AR. RESULTING
APPARENT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE 105-108F RANGE NONETHELESS THROUGH
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING HEIGHTS/BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS TUE-THU TIMEFRAME. HEAT WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED/EXTENDED INTO MID WEEK AT A LATER POINT BUT THIS WILL
PRIMARILY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MIXING/DRYING WE ARE GETTING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY THAT TIMEFRAME AFTER SOIL MOISTURE IS REDUCED
GRADUALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS TO BE HOT AND
HUMID WITH BODERLINE WARNING CONDITIONS AT THE LEAST.

SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY SAG SWRD TOWARD OUR CWA BY MID
WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY SPREAD EWRD
TOWARD MO ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRONGER FLOW ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MAY SEE OUTFLOW FROM THESE SYSTEMS MAKE A
RUN AT NERN OK/NWRN AR INTO MID WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN OR IF
THIS OCCURS IS LOW ATTM. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THIS HAPPEN APPEARS
TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND HAVE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA NERN CWA TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY. LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED BY MOST OF US EVEN IF THIS LOW
PROBABILITY SCENARIO DOES OCCUR.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074-
     OKZ076.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
715 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
715 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
IN ADDITION...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS UNSTABLE AND LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH HUMIDITY
HAVE RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 98 AND 104 DEGREES.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES AND WARM NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
/OKCNPWTSA/ FOR DETAILS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS
SHOULD REVIEW HEAT RELATED ACTION PLANS AND BE PREPARED TO RESPOND
TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID DAYTIME CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AREA WIDE. WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND HEAT HEADLINES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED INTO NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

ARZ001-192245-
BENTON AR-
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL BENTON

AT 520 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
BENTONVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF ROGERS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...PEA RIDGE
AND BELLA VISTA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3649 9397 3626 9408 3628 9427 3650 9428
      3650 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 180DEG 3KT 3638 9416

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

ARZ002-192315-
CARROLL AR-
534 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CARROLL

AT 533 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF COIN...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE AND GREEN FOREST.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3623 9336 3638 9353 3650 9343 3650 9336
      3644 9329 3630 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 158DEG 3KT 3636 9338

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
728 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

ARZ001-200115-
BENTON AR-
728 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN BENTON

AT 728 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PEA RIDGE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PEA RIDGE...BELLA VISTA AND
GARFIELD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3649 9394 3630 9402 3641 9427 3650 9419
      3650 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 030DEG 10KT 3646 9409