Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 25, 2010Washington County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 25, 2010, 6:27 PM CDT for Washington County, Arkansas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2010, 6:27 PM CDT (23:27 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2010, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Washington County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1444 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -59 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 958 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

468 
WUUS54 KTSA 252327
SVRTSA
ARC143-260000-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0099.100525T2327Z-100526T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 623 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF PRAIRIE GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FARMINGTON...GREENLAND...LINCOLN AND PRAIRIE GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9412 3589 9444 3607 9451 3611 9445
      3610 9440 3614 9439 3615 9437 3615 9434
      3617 9434 3620 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 207DEG 10KT 3603 9436

$$

1 follow-up statement

827 
WWUS54 KTSA 252356
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
656 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

ARC143-260006-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-100526T0000Z/
WASHINGTON AR-
656 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 700 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3599 9412 3589 9444 3607 9451 3611 9445
      3610 9440 3614 9439 3615 9437 3615 9434
      3617 9434 3620 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 200DEG 10KT 3601 9439

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 25, 2:33 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 25, 2:33 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
233 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN AN AREA OF GREATER THAN
2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LITTLE CAP. SIMILAR CAPE VALUES...BUT A
GREATER CAP EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.
CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY
MID EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK
BUT APPARENT LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX NEAR THE I35 CORRIDOR.

THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW IS PROGGED TO BE EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED THAN TODAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND AS A RESULT...THE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STORM INTENSITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH WIND SHEAR LACKING.
THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SITUATION.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BE SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...WILL RESULT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MEMORIAL DAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMP WISE IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO IN GENERAL WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  87  67  87 /  30  40  30  30
FSM   68  87  67  86 /  30  40  30  30
MLC   67  88  65  85 /  20  20  10  30
BVO   64  86  65  87 /  30  50  30  30
FYV   63  83  63  82 /  30  50  30  30
BYV   63  83  65  83 /  40  50  30  30
MKO   67  85  64  85 /  20  40  30  30
MIO   64  85  66  86 /  30  60  30  30
F10   66  87  65  84 /  20  30  20  30
HHW   67  87  67  87 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22

Hazardous weather outlook, May 25, 5:12 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FURTHER
WEST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNSET AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DRIFT WEST INTO THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROGUH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. SOME DRIER AIR MAY
WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY LIMITING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.,,BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. WHILE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 25, 1:49 PM CDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
149 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

ARZ029-251915-
SEBASTIAN AR-
149 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN

AT 148 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HUNTINGTON...
MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...HARTFORD...HACKETT...GREENWOOD...HUNTINGTON...
MIDLAND...WASHBURN...BURNVILLE...EXCELSIOR...MANSFIELD AND JENNY
LIND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3515 9402 3515 9414 3511 9415 3508 9426
      3506 9424 3497 9424 3495 9442 3525 9442
      3526 9408 3522 9408 3521 9405 3522 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 184DEG 16KT 3511 9428

Special weather statement, May 25, 2:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

ARZ001-252000-
BENTON AR-
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     EASTERN BENTON

AT 220 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF
MONTE NE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROGERS...LOWELL...PEA RIDGE AND
GARFIELD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3624 9396 3623 9402 3623 9418 3649 9421
      3648 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 181DEG 12KT 3633 9407

Local storm report, May 25, 3:34 PM CDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             1 SW AVOCA              36.39N 94.08W
05/25/2010  M1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KAH

Special weather statement, May 25, 4:17 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

ARZ020-252145-
FRANKLIN AR-
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     EASTERN FRANKLIN

AT 417 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OZARK...DENNING...ALTUS AND
WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3564 9369 3542 9370 3545 9384 3568 9386
      3567 9368 3565 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 172DEG 14KT 3552 9371

Local storm report, May 25, 4:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             7 NE OZARK              35.56N 93.74W
05/25/2010  E1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PBS

Local storm report, May 25, 5:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             2 W WATALULA            35.57N 93.86W
05/25/2010  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 25, 12:50 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Madison, Washington	85 min
May 25, 1:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	31 min
May 25, 1:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	26 min
May 25, 2:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	40 min
May 25, 2:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	31 min
May 25, 4:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Franklin	28 min
May 25, 4:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	18 min
May 25, 4:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	28 min
May 25, 5:57 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Washington	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.