Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO OCCUR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES FOR VFR WOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THUNDER
STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KTUL...KRVS AND
KMLC AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010/

DISCUSSION...
BUSY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD WITH THREAT OF BOTH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. PDS TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT TIL
03Z FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SEVERE THREAT
NORTH OF TUL-FSM LINE MORE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME BUT THE
RAPIDLY EVOLVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION
THERE AS WELL.

FIRST THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF KGAG WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO OKC METRO TO
NORTH OF HUGO. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S.
MORNING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE FURTHER IMPACT ON
NORTH PUSH OF WARM FRONT. PRESSURE FALLS ANALYZED OVER MUCH OF NE
OKLAHOMA SO EXPECT BOUNDARY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF TUL-
FSM LINE...AND HIGHEST-END SEVERE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...WILL EXIST NEAR AND JUST TO ITS SOUTH. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A
COMPLEX OF STORMS GROWS AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS...
THOUGH STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED BY THEN.

AS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION
AS IT IS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 412. MODELS CONTINUE TO TARGET AREA FROM
ABOUT MLC NE TOWARD FYV FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS OVERNIGHT.
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED
RIVER WHERE CURRENT WATCH NOT IN EFFECT...HOWEVER THEY MISSED OUT
ON ANY RAIN THIS MORNING AND FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGHER.

UPPER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY WITH WEAK SFC
TROUGH PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING OVER NW ARKANSAS EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS.
WHILE SHEAR MAY BE LESS FAVORABLE WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS FAIRLY
HIGH.

SYSTEM AND SFC TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST THU NIGHT AND
USHER IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER UNDER LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO PUNCH WESTERN TROUGH ENERGY A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT BUT
STILL UNLIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS THIS FAR EAST. ALSO A FEW DIURNAL
POP UP STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT A DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST REMAINS
IN TACT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VINITA TO OZARK.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

DISCUSSION...
TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ALONG A WARM FRONT.  THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS...ONE OR MORE LARGE STORM
COMPLEXES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL.  THIS SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN AS THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING.  HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED EARLIER ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE
TO RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING.  FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED AND MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH THE STORM COMPLEX
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AND SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY...THEN
ADDITIONAL RAINS WOULD WORSEN ANY ONGOING FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKZ065-192230-
OKFUSKEE OK-
501 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OKFUSKEE

AT 459 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...BEARDEN AND CASTLE.

THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 530 PM AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE HAIL AS IT APPROACHES OKEMAH. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3564 9633 3548 9609 3529 9643 3530 9644
      3545 9644 3545 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 217DEG 26KT 3537 9643

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKZ065-066-071-192345-
MCINTOSH OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
610 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH

AT 610 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BRYANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HENRYETTA...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...
GRAYSON AND SCHULTER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3561 9593 3550 9572 3528 9591 3533 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 216DEG 22KT 3535 9601

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKZ064-065-192345-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
613 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 613 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3573 9644 3559 9662 3582 9663 3583 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 216DEG 22KT 3561 9672