Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MESOCYCLONE OF THE NOBLE COUNTY SUPERCELL EXTRAPOLATES TO
THE OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTY LINES AT 455 PM.  THE SURFACE-
BASED CAPE IS AROUND 1700 J/KG NEAR THE CELL...DROPPING TO
1200 J/KG AT THE OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTY LINES AND THEN TO
AROUND 750 J/KG DEEPER INTO OSAGE COUNTY.  THE CELL
SHOULD WEAKEN AND OR BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS IT
MOVES DEEPER INTO OSAGE COUNTY.

STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 900 M2/S2...45 KT OF 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR
AND AN EXCELLENT HODOGRAPH SUGGEST THE CELL WILL HAVE
TORNADO POTENTIAL UNTIL IT CAN GET SEVERAL MILES INTO OSAGE
COUNTY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
        ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF A MCALESTER TO
        FORT SMITH LINE.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDED BY A
DRYLINE TO THE WEST AND WARM FRONT TO THE EAST. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. RAPID
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...WITH STORMS MAINTAINING SEVERE STRENGTH WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. OBSERVED WIND PROFILES AND STORM HISTORY STRONGLY
SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADIC...PRIMARILY
IMPACTING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM.

ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

ALONG WITH THE RISK OF TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINES MAY OCCUR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS REPEATED ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  FORECAST
CONDITIONS DO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EXPECT ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURBANK                 36.69N 96.73W
05/10/2010  M65.00 MPH       OSAGE              OK   MESONET

            BURBANK MESONET...ENDING AT 525 PM

0532 PM     HAIL             7 W PAWHUSKA            36.67N 96.46W
05/10/2010  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SW BURBANK            36.62N 96.82W
05/10/2010  M64 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

            BURBANK MESONET...ENDING 530 PM

&&

SAA