Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 30, 2010Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 30, 2010, 3:56 PM CDT for Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 30, 2010, 3:56 PM CDT (20:56 UTC)
Expired: Apr 30, 2010, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 30, 1:46 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 217 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -186 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 903 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 221 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 30, 3:00 PM CDT, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 3:00 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM FAR NWRN AR INTO SERN OK. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OBVIOUS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RUNNING CLOSE TO 70F IN SE
OK...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. WITH SFC BASED CAPES RUNNING
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE (0-6KM SHEAR AROUND
50KTS)...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA. DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING A TORNADIC
POTENTIAL...WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TOMORROW...WEAK SURFACE FRONT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY SHOULD LAY
ACROSS SE OK/WCNTRL AR SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAY LIFT N SOME IN
RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS/WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN TX. WEAK
CAP WILL LIKELY EXIST S OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCT TSTM DEVELOP IN
THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BULK
SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SERN OK INTO WCNTRL AR.

BULK OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO DEVELOP A PROMINENT ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT (300-305K SFC) ACROSS CNTRL OK...WITH A SECONDARY
BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL OK INTO NE OK LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS SWLY INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR E BY THIS TIME. WILL HANG ON TO
SOME LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND WRN AR. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST DRY
AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL.

EXTENDED...
A PIECE OF THE MEAN WRN TROF SHOULD BREAK OFF AND PUSH E ACROSS TX
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH S TO PRECLUDE POPS FOR OUR AREA.

12Z ECMWF/GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
TIMING OF FRONT BY THURSDAY...AND HAVE SIDE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF
FOR NOW. COOLER WEATHER LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  71  49  74 /  10  70  40  10
FSM   64  75  54  72 /  50  80  60  20
MLC   57  72  49  74 /  10  70  40  10
BVO   46  67  45  73 /  10  70  40  10
FYV   57  72  49  68 /  50  80  60  20
BYV   58  74  51  69 /  60  80  70  20
MKO   55  72  49  73 /  10  70  40  10
MIO   51  71  48  72 /  10  60  50  10
F10   54  71  49  74 /  10  70  40  10
HHW   64  75  51  75 /  20  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 1:03 PM CDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST OF A BENTONVILLE TO HUGO LINE.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2PM.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ACCOMPANIED A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT AS IT HAS TRUDGED SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY.
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED. CURRENTLY... AT EARLY AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA OF CONCERN ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE
EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THIS AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE... INCLUDING A LIMITED CHANCE FOR TORNADOES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AS THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION... SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY... THOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE AS THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 30, 2:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

OKZ049-073-075-076-302015-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
228 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN LE FLORE...SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA AND
     LATIMER

AT 228 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KOSOMA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILBURTON...YANUSH...BENGAL...DAMON...RED OAK...
WHITESBORO...TALIHINA...FANSHAWE...CLAYTON...MOYERS...KOSOMA...
SNOW...NASHOBA...STANLEY...TUSKAHOMA...KIAMICHI...ALBION AND DUNBAR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3425 9561 3439 9576 3501 9528 3496 9484
      3453 9478 3450 9486 3451 9504 3444 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 227DEG 40KT 3438 9560

Special weather statement, Apr 30, 2:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

OKZ070-073>075-302030-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
242 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 242 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
QUINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STIGLER...KINTA...ENTERPRISE...
WHITEFIELD...KEOTA...TAMAHA...QUINTON...BRIARTOWN AND PORUM.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3550 9520 3533 9481 3494 9541 3505 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 224DEG 41KT 3506 9538

Special weather statement, Apr 30, 2:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

ARZ001-010-302030-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
252 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENTON

AT 253 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FAIRMOUNT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENTONVILLE...SILOAM SPRINGS...
ROGERS...LOWELL...GENTRY...GRAVETTE...PEA RIDGE...GATEWAY...
SPRINGTOWN...HIGHFILL...CAVE SPRINGS...WAR EAGLE...DECATUR...
HIWASSE...BELLA VISTA...GARFIELD AND TONTITOWN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3608 9442 3620 9457 3629 9458 3650 9452
      3650 9385 3629 9386
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 220DEG 45KT 3625 9444

Special weather statement, Apr 30, 3:23 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

ARZ029-OKZ076-302045-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
323 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 322 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF POTEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...POTEAU...HEAVENER...HOWE...WISTER...
CAMERON...POCOLA...FORT SMITH...HARTFORD...HACKETT...GREENWOOD...
BARLING..LAVACA...HUNTINGTON...MIDLAND...WASHBURN...BURNVILLE...
EXCELSIOR...MANSFIELD...BONANZA...JENNY LIND AND BLOOMER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3514 9413 3510 9415 3507 9423 3504 9422
      3493 9439 3492 9443 3490 9445 3483 9456
      3501 9478 3536 9439 3535 9427 3535 9410
      3514 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 221DEG 41KT 3503 9453

Local storm report, Apr 30, 3:44 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Apr 30, 3:50 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 30, 3:33 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 16 more	9 hr
Apr 30, 7:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Kay	29 min
Apr 30, 7:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	34 min
Apr 30, 8:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	21 min
Apr 30, 8:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	49 min
Apr 30, 8:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Rogers	47 min
Apr 30, 8:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Rogers	44 min
Apr 30, 9:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	43 min
Apr 30, 11:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	36 min
Apr 30, 1:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee	35 min
Apr 30, 1:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Wagoner	64 min
Apr 30, 1:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	35 min
Apr 30, 1:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	31 min
Apr 30, 2:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah	64 min
Apr 30, 2:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer, Pushmataha	47 min
Apr 30, 2:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell	48 min
Apr 30, 2:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Choctaw, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	46 min
Apr 30, 2:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore, Pushmataha	46 min
Apr 30, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah	30 min
Apr 30, 3:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sequoyah	40 min
Apr 30, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, LeFlore, Sequoyah	50 min
Apr 30, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore, Pushmataha	40 min
Apr 30, 2:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	29 min
Apr 30, 2:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	11 min
Apr 30, 2:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Washington	65 min
Apr 30, 2:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	38 min
Apr 30, 3:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Crawford, Madison, Washington	56 min
Apr 30, 3:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	22 min
Apr 30, 3:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	22 min
Apr 30, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	48 min
Apr 30, 5:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	26 min
Apr 30, 5:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.