Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SENT UPDATE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HP SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS COULD REMAIN
DISCRETE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
TORNADO THREAT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MORE INTO LINEAR MCS BY LATE
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT
AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PUSHES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
854 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
	TORNADO. RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
TORNADOES... LARGE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNDERGOING A TRANSITION FROM DISCRETE
CELLS INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS WILL LESSEN THE
TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME. HOWEVER... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

OKZ056>058-061>063-160400-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-ROGERS OK-
1003 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN ROGERS...NORTHERN DELAWARE...CRAIG...OTTAWA...
     NOWATA AND NORTHWESTERN MAYES

AT 1003 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PEORIA TO BLUEJACKET TO 3 MILES NORTH OF
NOWATA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN ROGERS...NORTHERN DELAWARE...CRAIG...
OTTAWA...NOWATA AND NORTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS THROUGH 1100 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3660 9461 3655 9483 3645 9548
      3695 9580 3695 9579 3700 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 324DEG 23KT 3690 9462 3680 9506
          3671 9560