Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP... WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING HEAT WARNING
AND ADVISORY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF RELIEF IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT... WHICH IS CURRENTLY STALLED TO OUR NORTH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INITIATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH.  THUNDERSTORMS SPAWNED OVERNIGHT
IN KANSAS HAVE LEFT A FEW SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE HAVE INITIATED A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE KANSAS
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR MORE
OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY TODAY. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED POPS IN
THE EAST FOR AFTERNOON HEAT-RELATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER... HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES AT DANGEROUS LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER... THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A SHIFT IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
WEST OF THE REGION... THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS... WHILE HUMID AIR KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK AS THE WEAKENING FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  104  80  98  74 /  20  20  30  50
FSM  104  79 102  77 /  20  10  20  40
MLC  104  79 103  76 /   0  10  10  40
BVO  104  74  96  71 /  20  30  40  50
FYV  100  74  97  71 /  20  20  30  50
BYV  100  74  95  70 /  20  30  30  40
MKO  105  78 101  74 /  10  20  30  50
MIO  102  76  94  70 /  20  30  30  50
F10  104  80 100  75 /   0  10  20  50
HHW  104  79 106  80 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ063-OKZ068-
     OKZ069.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

OKZ061-067-140945-
ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
353 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND SOUTHERN ROGERS

AT 353 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
CATOOSA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS AND TIAWAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3637 9553 3617 9545 3611 9572 3623 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 253DEG 10KT 3618 9569

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

OKZ061-062-140945-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
413 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL ROGERS AND WESTERN MAYES

AT 413 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TIAWAH...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE AND TIAWAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3637 9538 3619 9537 3620 9560 3635 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 268DEG 14KT 3624 9554

LACY