Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING OSAGE COUNTY.  LINE OF STORMS
HAS FORMED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF TULSA WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING IT.  THESE STORMS COULD VERY WELL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SUGGESTS.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS SLIGHTLY WITH AN INCREASE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF TULSA THIS EVENING AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN POPS AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 9 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...SPREADINDEX=38.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS HAVE OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TODAY
AND WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THESE SOUTH
WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY VEGETATION HAVE RESULTED
IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.

AS THE DRY LINE IS OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A LARGE CAP EXISTS OVER THE AREA SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
VERY LIKELY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.  WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.  GIVE SOME AND INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE MOST LIKELY PLACE
FOR A TORNADO WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA.  AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WOULD
BE LATE EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  IN THIS TIME FRAME
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN RISKS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE
MORNING SO THAT WILL BE THE LEAST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNERSTORMS TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA
AROUND NOON.

AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE DRY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

OKZ054-070215-
OSAGE OK-
851 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 851 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHIDLER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER...FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9650 3700 9628 3699 9628 3671 9663
      3680 9676 3686 9676 3701 9660 3700 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 222DEG 50KT 3683 9663

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