Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BACKBUILD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE CONCERN AS THE
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS RATHER WEAK. HAVE NOT MADE
ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  70  94 /  50  30  20  20
FSM   70  91  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
MLC   69  92  69  93 /  20  20  20  10
BVO   66  88  68  94 /  50  20  30  20
FYV   65  86  64  88 /  50  40  20  20
BYV   67  85  66  89 /  50  40  20  30
MKO   69  88  68  92 /  50  30  20  20
MIO   68  86  68  93 /  50  30  20  20
F10   69  89  69  93 /  40  30  20  20
HHW   69  95  70  95 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
739 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
739 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...8 TO 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AS
THIS FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS RATHER
UNSTABLE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURSDAY
CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL
THEN SET IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING
NEAR 105 IN SOME PLACES. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
LATEST FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.