Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... POSSIBLY
SEVERE... WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...
AFFECTING EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR ARKANSAS TAF SITES.
HOWEVER... ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON... LIKELY AFFECTING ARKANSAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INITIAL CONVECTION HAVING WANED...WITH RENEWED
STORM DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PORTION OF THE
DRYLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY / RUC ANALYSIS SUPPORT ONE MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX NOW ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRENDS
IN DOWNSTREAM CIRRUS SHIELD. CORRESPONDING SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SPARK ELEVATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...WITH MOST RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VERY LITTLE ELEVATED CINH REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALL SUPPORTS MODEL CONSENSUS IN BREAKING
OUT AND/OR EXPANDING ONGOING CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY TAP STEEP
LAPSE RATES POSING A LOW SEVERE WEATHER RISK BEFORE CONTAMINATING
AND REDUCING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. A PERIOD OF ONGOING BUT
SUB- SEVERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ATTENTION WILL FOCUS TO ANY BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE ADVANCING DRY LINE...AND ALSO TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
NEXT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX FORECAST TO TRANSLATE INTO NORTH TEXAS BY
AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODEL QPF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE DEEP BACKING FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING WILL FAVOR BANDS OF STORMS WITH WIND
POTENTIAL LIKELY THE GREATEST IMPACT AND ANY TORNADIC RISK
RELEGATED TO BRIEF LEWP COUPLETS.

STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH COOLER
AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY
RETURN SUNDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO WITHIN THIS WARM MOIST ADVECTION
PERIOD BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE KEEPS
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ENVELOPES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH
THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPS FORECAST
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...SPREADINDEX=36.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

DISCUSSION...
A JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS SPAWNED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRY LINE OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD... AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE... AND ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL IGNITE THIS AFTERNOON IN CONDITIONS
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS EXPERIENCING TRAINING OF STORM CELLS.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY AS WELL. THIS
WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY
RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE REGION... SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

OKZ054-059-060-064-021315-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-
727 AM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK...TULSA AND PAWNEE

AT 728 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES WEST OF SHAMROCK TO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...OSAGE...HOMINY...WYNONA...
JENNINGS...TERLTON...HALLETT...MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...CLEVELAND...
WESTPORT...DEPEW...SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON AND MANNFORD.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3671 9628 3625 9602 3566 9662 3616 9663
      3616 9681 3617 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 217DEG 65KT 3595 9693 3566 9675

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