Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
247 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CONTINUED SHORT TERM FLOOD THREAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS ATOP EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING
TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES /PER MODEL ANALYSES AND 12Z RAOB
SUITE/. CURRENT 88D MOSAIC SHOWS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS/SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE ABILENE AREA IN
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE. THESE ARE LARGELY ALONG THE AXIS OF
MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. MOVEMENT
HAS BEEN LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LINE...AND THEREFORE...TRAINING
OF STORMS HAS AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR...LEADING TO
NARROW CORRIDORS OF HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. RAINFALL RATES IN
THE DEEPEST CORES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
RANGE...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES. THE
HIGHEST IMPACT AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ESPECIALLY SINCE THAT AREA HAS
SEEN A LOT OF RAIN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE ALL COUNTIES IN THE FLOOD WATCHING...ALTHOUGH THE EVENING
OR MID SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO BEGIN TRIMMING THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE WATCH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO SINK TOWARD NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING. STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE LOWS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE VALUES...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. THE BARTLESVILLE AREA WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 70 TONIGHT...AND
THAT WILL HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN DRY OUT.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MOST
LIKELY TO SEE CONTINUED RAINFALL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND THEREFORE...WILL NOT HAVE AS GREAT A FLOODING
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN AT SEASONAL
LEVELS...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT HIGHS WILL WARM AS MUCH AS THE MEX
GUIDANCE SHOWS DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THIS PROLONGED
RAIN EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  84  70  91 /  80  60  20  10
FSM   76  83  71  91 /  80  80  30  20
MLC   75  83  69  90 /  90  70  30  20
BVO   69  85  66  89 /  60  50  10  10
FYV   71  80  64  85 /  90  70  30  20
BYV   71  79  64  86 /  90  70  20  10
MKO   73  81  69  89 /  90  80  20  20
MIO   72  85  66  89 /  80  50  20  10
F10   72  81  69  89 /  90  70  20  20
HHW   74  85  71  91 /  70  70  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
		HIGHEST THREAT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
		HIGHEST THREAT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE WIDESPREAD
1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE
IN LOCALIZED AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD...
HOWEVER ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD RELATED PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY SHIFTING MORE
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RIVER FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LESSEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD
RELATED PRODUCTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SUMMERS                 35.98N 94.49W
07/08/2010                   WASHINGTON         AR   POST OFFICE

            WATER OVER RURAL ROADS OUTSIDE OF SUMMERS. MAIL CARRIER
            COULD NOT DELIVER MAIL TO SOME AREAS.

&&

SAA