Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Tulsa, OK

940 
WGUS74 KTSA 081920
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
220 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

ARC033-131-090000-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-100709T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SEBASTIAN AR-CRAWFORD AR-
220 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN COUNTIES...

AT 207 PM CDT...RAIN HAD TEMPORARILY EXITED THE WARNED AREA...
HOWEVER MORE HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATES THAT OVER 3.5 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN A NARROW BAND FROM BARLING TO KIBLER. 
ANOTHER 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 700 PM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN 
INCLUDE RYE HILL BARLING KIBLER DYER AND ALMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 9433 3534 9442 3557 9417 3547 9404

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SFC
TROUGH FROM NEAR KXNA/KFYV TO NEAR KMLC. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PREVAIL MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-44
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AGAIN INCREASING SOUTH OF
I-40 BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF A
SFC TROUGH LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-44. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM APPEAR FROM RADAR LOOP TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
OKMULGEE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CARRY THIS FEATURE ENE NEAR
THE SFC BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP H2O VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OVER ENTIRE AREA CONTINUES TO LEND HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. GOING FORECAST IS
TRENDING WELL AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF
SITES MOST LIKELY TO SEE PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS. MOST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TAF SITES. AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
4 PM ON FRIDAY. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
AS WHAT REMAINS OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ARE ALSO INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH HAS WORKED INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND IS NEAR THE
I-44 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY WORKS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH P.W. VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THANKS TO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING ALSO REMAINS
A CONCERN.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE AID OF A MID-LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
521 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING .

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A TROPICAL LIKE CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 25 MILES EAST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY EARLY THIS MORNING WAS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...IN PARTS OF CREEK AND TULSA COUNTIES...WHERE
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN COMMON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA KANSAS TO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROPICAL LIKE CIRCULATION AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
TO NEAR 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BOTH A FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LESSEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.