Excessive Heat Warning 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR EXPECTED SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS SITES AND
KMLC IN OKLAHOMA. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY OR
BETTER AT ALL SITES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE SENT OUT SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
ADDRESS CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT... SO POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALSO NEEDED TO BE LOWERED ACROSS THE REGION.
OF COURSE THIS LOWERED FORECAST AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS
WELL. LATEST UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE JUST BEEN SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES
IN PLACE... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS... HAIL... AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS NOT EXPERIENCING RAINFALL WILL BE HOT AND HUMID...
ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS RECEIVING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER... WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY. A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY... MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
301 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

OKZ072-076-072100-
LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
301 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 301 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GANS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SALLISAW...GANS...MULDROW...ROLAND...SPIRO
AND POCOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3523 9446 3523 9478 3530 9481 3534 9481
      3536 9484 3550 9490 3554 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 251DEG 10KT 3534 9471