Wind Advisory 2, NWS Topeka, KS

148 
WWUS73 KTOP 011637
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 AM CDT THU APR 1 2010

.A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...AS A SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>039-054-012200-
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0002.100401T1700Z-100402T0200Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-LYON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
EMPORIA
1137 AM CDT THU APR 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND 30 MPH WITH
  GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT ON
  EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...AND BE ALERT TO SUDDEN GUSTS OF WIND.

&&

$$

WOLTERS

653 
WWUS73 KTOP 012034
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT THU APR 1 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>039-054-012145-
/O.CAN.KTOP.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100402T0200Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-LYON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
EMPORIA
334 PM CDT THU APR 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS EARLIER FORECAST. WIND SPEED
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

WOLTERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 AM CDT THU APR 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WINDS
AND FIRE WEATHER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CONCERNING TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN QUITE WINDY. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT DEEPER MIXING...AND WHILE THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE A SHADE WEAKER IN THESE AREAS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 45 OR GREATER IS A BIT BETTER. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WITH LESS GUST POTENTIAL VIA MORE LIMITED MIXING. IN THE END
IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL
SEE WINDS CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 45
MPH. THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE THE REST OF THE CWA COMING ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN THOSE
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
FAVORABLE. HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S. ANOTHER CONCERNING FEATURE FOR TODAY IS A DRY LINE
CREEPING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THE NAM WOULD INDICATE THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES IN
THE CWA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS AND MUCH LOWER
RH VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE UPPER LOW...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...AND JET SUPPORT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT
FEEL IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. HOWEVER AS
THE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST...EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO FOLLOW SUIT AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY
FRIDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE INVERSION ALOFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT FREE UNFORCED CONVECTION AND SOME
DEEP SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.

CONCERNING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL...EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
HAIL PRODUCING STORMS. FROM MID DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH HEATING
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA CAN EXPERIENCE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRETTY DENSE EAST OF
THE FRONT AND HEATING LIMITED. THIS WOULD LIMIT SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH LIMITED SFC BASED CAPE...WIND FIELDS ARE
QUITE STRONG AND WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF QLCS THANKS TO STORM MOTIONS RUNNING
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE ABLE TO
SEND SOME OF THE AMBIENT WIND ENERGY TO THE SFC. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL HEATING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT AND THE TRAINING STORM MOTIONS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
INCH OR MORE UNDER MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION...BUT THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK AND KEEP RATES
FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. THIS APPEARS FEASIBLE AND KEPT
AT LEAST LOW END POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THE COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE STRONG IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND
SATURDAY LOOKS CHILLY IN COMPARISON TO THIS WEEK.

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS KANSAS. THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY
TURNS FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER AFTER MONDAY AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
ON THE INCREASE AND LIMITED MIXING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RH LEVELS
IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY EAST OF AN EMPORIA TO
MARYSVILLE LINE. THE WILD CARD FOR TODAYS FORECAST COMES IN THE
FORM OF A DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MOVING THIS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR AS FAR EAST AS ABILENE AND
WASHINGTON BY LATE AFTERNOON. AM NOT CURRENTLY VERY CONFIDENT IN
THE DRY AIR MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST AND REFLECT THAT IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...AREAS WEST OF THE DRY LINE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RH VALUES...STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT...AND A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
SITUATION. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
KEEPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT GENERALLY 7-14KTS THEN
VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY BEYOND 12Z AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH LLWS IN ALL TAFS UNTIL
11-12Z AS FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING LLVL JET WINDS DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF A STRONG INVERSION. DID NOT GO
WITH MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NAM
INDICATES...BUT DO EXPECT AREA OF DEVELOPING STRATUS IN TX TO
QUICKLY MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD WITH THE LEADING EDGE MAKING IT INTO
KS...BUT WILL CARRY FEW-SCT015 FOR NOW AS DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN
THIS LAYER SHOULD BE THIN. STRONGEST SFC WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS BUT GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 30KTS SHOULD BE COMMON
IN THE 16Z-00Z/02 TIMEFRAME. NO PRECIP FCST IN THE TAF SITES THRU
06Z/02.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-012100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
347 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.