Wind Advisory 15, NWS Topeka, KS

680 
WWUS73 KTOP 302150
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

...WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...

KSZ011-012-022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059-302300-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-101230T2200Z/
NEMAHA-BROWN-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-DICKINSON-GEARY-
MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIAWATHA...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...
JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
350 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 AM CST THU DEC 30 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNING WINTER WEATHER...

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE AREA WITH GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. COLD FRONT IS NOW BEGINNING TO MAKE AN EASTWARD SURGE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS MUCH SHARPER
THAN MODELS ARE ABLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TEMP FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. EXACT EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE FREEZING
LINE FRIDAY MORNING IS A TRICKY FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE
VERTICAL RESOLUTION OF MOST MODEL OUTPUT...PARTICULARLY GFS...IS
ALSO LIMITING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. ANTICIPATE
THE FREEZING LINE TO APPROACH AND PERHAPS PASS TOPEKA AND EMPORIA
BUT MAY ALSO SEE IT FLUCTUATE BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST A BIT ON
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT...WITH AN EVENTUAL COOLING ALOFT
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPES IN AREAS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS...
WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EVEN LIGHT ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA AND HAVE
ISSUED THE ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR THIS REASON AS LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE...AND LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW ARE
EXPECTED.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES HAVE RUSHED NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG WESTERN TROF DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ATTM. LEADING SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW SEEN ON
PROFILERS ACROSS CTRL KS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF
COLORADO ATTM. WHILE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS RUNNING IN
THE UPPER 50S UNDER A STRONG SOUTH WIND...SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING NEAR HILL CITY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 MOST NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL LOCALES TODAY. NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES TO FEEL THE
INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE HELD HIGHS IN MID
50S THERE. MID AND UPPER LEVELS GET AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS LEAD SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...COLD AIR
GETS AN ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AS SFC LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE LARGER SCALE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOPS THE NEXT SFC LOW NEAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE. ONE BIG
PLAYER WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD SURFACE DOME CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE COLUMN ALOFT SATURATES ONCE AGAIN BY
AROUND 09Z...AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS WARM COLUMN BEGINS TO
FALL INTO THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES WOULD BE FREEZING OR MIXED. BY 12Z THE SURFACE FREEZING
LINE RESIDES SOMEWHERE ALONG A BROWN COUNTY TO ABILENE
LINE...ALTHOUGH THE FASTER EC BRINGS IT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
TOPEKA. HAVE USED TOP DOWN WX AS A GUIDE AND DRAWN THE RAIN /
FREEZING RAIN MIXED PRECIP LINE FROM JEFFERSON COUNTY TO COUNCIL
GROVE AND POINTS NORTHWEST.

BY THE 12-18Z WINDOW THE TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCIES ARE A BIT MORE
PRONOUNCED. GFS WOULD DRAW WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK
NORTHWEST AS FAR AS CLAY CENTER AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...WHILE NAM TAKES THE 0 LINE WESTWARD TO
MANHATTAN...AND THE EC DRIVES THE COLD AIR WEST TO ABOUT TOPEKA.
SO IT ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AREAS THAT SAW FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS MIGHT CHANGE BRIEFLY BACK TO
RAIN AROUND NOON...BUT THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE THE OUTLIER
SOLUTION AND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WETBULB DOWN BELOW THE ZERO
MARK. HAVE PLAYED THE GRIDS TOWARD KEEPING FROZEN PRECIP ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A VALLEY FALLS TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. AREAS GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF CLAY CENTER ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST. COULD EVEN GET A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I35 WHERE INSTABILITY BRIEFLY NOSES
BACK WESTWARD IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD AIR THAT SURGES IN BEHIND THE LOW
FALL VERY QUICKLY TO AND BELOW THE -10C MARK FOR ICE
CRYSTALS...AND WOULD EXPECT IF ANYTHING A QUICK SWITCH TO A BRIEF
ROUND OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT BY THIS POINT MOST OF THE MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

CURRENTLY AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT FROZEN PRECIP IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME IN A SLICE FROM THE NE TO SW ACROSS OUR CWA. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS ARE NOT PROGGED AT THIS TIME TO BE LARGE WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. NO ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MONITOR DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY CHANGES.

LOADED COLLABORATIVE GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED AND MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES. STILL LOOKS VERY COLD AND BREEZY FOR THE NEW YEARS EVE
AND NEW YEARS DAY HOLIDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
WEEK. 67

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. COLD FRONT IS NOW SURGING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...EXPECTED
TO CROSS MHK BY EARLY EVENING...AND TOP/FOE BY LATE EVENING. IFR
CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER AND
PERHAPS SCATTER AS IT PUSHES EAST BUT DO BRING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR CIGS INTO ALL SITES. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROZEN PRECIP
AT MHK.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY
FOR KSZ008>012-020>023-034>036.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311815-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1203 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ARE LIKELY MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A HIAWATHA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AS WELL...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
FREEZING LINE SETS UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH A BRIEF CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT THIS TIME...WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AND SLEET
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF A SENECA TO MINNEAPOLIS LINE. EVEN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
TYPES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.