Wind Advisory 11, NWS Topeka, KS

887 
WWUS73 KTOP 260247
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
947 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010


KSZ008>010-020>023-034>039-054-055-058-260400-
/O.CAN.KTOP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-101026T0700Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-LYON-OSAGE-COFFEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...CONCORDIA...CLAY CENTER...
MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...EMPORIA
947 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OR GUSTS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE THE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS BRINGING A MILD NIGHT TO
THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS. STRONG JET MOVING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DROPPING PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.

EXPECT A GOOD WARM UP TODAY AS FRONT NOT PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
CWA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS NEAR 80 IN
THE EAST CTRL COUNTIES AND MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH CENTRAL APPEAR
ON TRACK. MIXING ALONG WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING WINDS UP GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER
SPEEDS EAST CTRL. GUST MAY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH...ALSO WITH STRONGER
FOCUS EAST CTRL. WILL THEN LIKELY GET A BRIEF LULL JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z
THIS EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WITH
SIMILAR SPEEDS TO DAYTIME NUMBERS. MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
PASSES...BUT PASSAGE WILL BE QUICK SO NO ADVISORY PRODUCTS ISSUED
ATTM. CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALSO FALLS MAINLY WITHIN THE 0-6Z
WINDOW...LEFT SOME CHANCES EAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT
COULD LIKELY END THEM SOONER THAN 12Z. CONCERNS WITH SHOWERS
MIXING DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. NAM IS GENERALLY
THE OUTLIER WITH THE 50KT BARBS AT 850MB...HOWEVER OTHER GUIDANCE
HOLDING IN THE 35 TO 40KT RANGE AND SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND FOR
WIND POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. DESPITE INCOMING CAA...A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S.

TUES/WED/THURS...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID WEEK AS STRONG CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH OUR
AREA ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND BREEZY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. A
WEAK TROF PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP KEEP LOW
LEVELS MIXED AND LOWS UP IN THE 40S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES
ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.

FRI/SAT/SUN...WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS TROF
MOVES EASTWARD AND RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CTRL PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IN
THE GUIDANCE KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SINCE YESTERDAYS RUNS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST. 67

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CONCERN
AS TO WHETHER LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS EVENING NEAR 01Z AS SURFACE
WINDS COULD CALM ENOUGH NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO WARRANT MENTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SFC WINDS TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR LLWS NOT TO
BE A CONCERN. VCSH TO MOVE IN AFT 05Z...BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION...DON'T THINK MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BECOME A
PROBLEM.

BYRNE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

KSZ008>012-020-023-024-026-038>040-055-056-261030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-POTTAWATOMIE-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-
522 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

KSZ021-022-034>037-054-058-059-261030-
CLAY-RILEY-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-LYON-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
522 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A MANHATTAN
TO GARNETT LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.