Tornado Warning 23, NWS Topeka, KS

563 
WWUS53 KTOP 080022
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
722 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

KSC139-080030-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-100708T0030Z/
OSAGE-
722 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 717 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT 
REPORTED SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES. THIS STORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LANDSPOUT TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER 
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...OR 5 MILES EAST OF CARBONDALE...MOVING 
EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING. AS A
LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9575 3886 9565 3886 9550 3875 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 283DEG 4KT 3880 9560

$$

BLAIR

068 
WWUS53 KTOP 080027
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
727 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

KSC139-080036-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-100708T0030Z/
OSAGE-
727 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
730 PM CDT...

AT 726 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LANDSPOUT TORNADOES HAD WEAKENED AND NO 
LONGER APPEARED CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OR OTHER SEVERE 
WEATHER...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3874 9575 3886 9565 3886 9550 3875 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 283DEG 4KT 3880 9559

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO ONE FEATURE FORCING CONVECTION.
EVEN STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LOOK UNORGANIZED...DUE PRIMARILY TO WEAK
SHEAR WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE IT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF SHRA IN THE TERMINALS. WILL KEEP A VC GROUP
INTO THE EVENING. THEN KEPT TAFS OPTIMISTIC WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. OTHERWISE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBY ARE TO LOW TO
MENTION.

WOLTERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../312 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010/
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AND MAY MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KS TURNPIKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NE...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
MHK...THEN SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF ICT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 4 TO
5Z...THUS OUR CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS
SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER TONIGHT. PW'S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS
WILL BE AROUND 2.0 INCHES...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL EXIST THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL KS. ANY FLOODING THIS
EVENING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND WHEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SET UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
MORE OF A MESOSCALE FORECAST A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
EVENING WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35 THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BUT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. THE GFS DOES SHOW BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35...THUS THERE COULD BE
AN ADDITIONAL .25 TO .5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE NAM SHOWS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS ANDERSON
COUNTY ON THURSDAY.

TONIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. ATTM...I
WENT WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. IF WE SEE MORE INSOLATION
THEN HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

GARGAN

PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY CATCH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CWA BY FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP INTO THE
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY TOWARD ZONAL FLOW WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED INVOF
THE HUDSON BAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...AS WELL AS IN ADVANCE OF A
SECONDARY TROUGH HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST. SOME ACTIVITY MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM AS WELL BUT WOULD TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED. UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AS THIS SYSTEM COMES THROUGH
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
BUT THE DETAILS OF THE SETUP FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL QUITE
FUZZY.

AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LONGER
RANGE MODELS HINT AT QUICK RESPONSE RIDGING INTO THE REGION WITH
THE SFC FRONT AND PRECIP PUSHING SOUTH. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS
TRUE...WOULD EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
90S ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WILL HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ABILITY TO PUSH
THE SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA...AS A WEAKER FRONTAL SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN GREATER PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
402 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
402 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AT
RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES...BUT
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG
BLUE RIVER BASIN IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF TUTTLE CREEK RESERVOIR
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.