Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS HAS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
QUESTION WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON EVERYTHING FROM WINDS TO
TEMPERATURES TO POPS.

THE CURRENT SITUATION HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR HLC WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT...MORE JUST A MINOR KINK IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...
STRETCHING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...CONVECTION
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD PUSHED OUT A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE A SECOND CONVERGENT
ZONE IS INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SPREADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING A MODERATE CAPPING INVERSION
LOCATED NEAR 850 HPA PER THE 18Z TOP RAOB. THERE IS AMPLE
INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 4000 J/KG
AT 20Z. HOWEVER...THE SLOWLY INCREASING CAP AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK MORNING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...HAVE SO
FAR OUTPACED THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND QUALITY MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT WITHOUT A QUALITY FORCING MECHANISM...
THE CWA WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF TO CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IS SHOULD BE STATED THAT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN THE CWA...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW
END BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY AS ANY STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TO
CONGLOMERATE INTO A LARGE MCS. THIS MCS WILL HAVE A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING A UNIFIED COLD POOL AND FORWARD PROPAGATING
TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF KANSAS SEEING PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF THE MCS IS ABLE TO DEVELOP FARTHER
SOUTH...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HAVE AN INCREASING RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY WILL
REMAIN OVER NEBRASKA...IOWA...AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

WEDNESDAYS WEATHER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHAT HAPPENS
OVERNIGHT AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
AVAILABLE WINDS...MOISTURE...AND FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE FRONT.
SHEAR OF 30 KTS OR MORE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
AND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION.
HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN THIS SETUP IS NOT GREAT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY IN WHAT MAY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT.

BARJENBRUCH

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AIR AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN ITS WAKE. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH DECREASING POPS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO LOWER 60S EAST CENTRAL. MODELS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL
KEEP FCST DRY ON THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LIMIT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY TO THE EAST WITH A BETTER PUSH OF DRIER AIR THEN FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WAVE.
A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRIES TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. WILL INCLUDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALL AND AT THE SAME TIME WILL HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING AS WELL AS DAY TO DAY
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED THE VERY SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CAP IN PLACE ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS...WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BUT NOT
BEING ABLE TO TAKE ROOT. EXPECT THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE BUT POTENTIALLY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THEREAFTER...AFTERNOON TSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN
CWA. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS INVOLVING CAP STRENGTH AS WELL
AS THE STRENGTH OF ANY LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THEY WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A LOW END TORNADO THREAT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
903 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

KSZ009-010-020230-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
903 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WASHINGTON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...

THROUGH 930 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST MARSHALL
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HOLLENBURG...HANOVER AND
BREMEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

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