Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00 UTC AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY TO MID TIME
PERIODS OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE TSRA. SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH OF TOP WITH MHK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH
WINDS. TOP AND FOE WILL BE SOUTHERLY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AT TOP
AND FOE IN THE 07Z-08Z PERIOD TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND IFR CIGS THROUGH 13Z WHEN CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR BY 15Z THEN VFR AFTER 18Z.

53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM BETWEEN ABILENE AND
HERINGTON TO JUST SOUTH OF FOE AND LWC.  WARM FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING
VERY SLOWLY NWD...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A LOT MORE PROGRESS THIS
EVENING.  SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER EC KS SHOW CAP STILL IN
PLACE AND CONVECTION FROM EMPORIA THROUGH TOPEKA TO ATCHISON HAS
BEEN ELEVATED.  SURFACE BASED STORMS NOW STARTING TO FIRE NORTHEAST
OF SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT IN SC/CENTRAL KS.  THIS MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT ENTERING
OUR CWA NEAR HERINGTON.  MAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
FRONT AND BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...SOME SUPERCELLS...WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRONG AND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
SO ANY STORM THAT COMES OFF THE BOUNDARY OR REMAINS ISOLATED HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO.  OTHERWISE VERY LARGE HAIL
EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER THREAT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
PRECIP ENDING IN EC KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...A BRIEF DRYING OUT
PERIOD WILL COMMENCE AND TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES
MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING A
POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ON SHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL ACT TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE FOCUS FOR THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WHICH MAY PIVOT AROUND THE LARGER LOW. CURRENT MODELS PROG TWO OF
THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE
TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHORTWAVES ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THE FIRST OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGHS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-132030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
325 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF
THE STORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. BY THE LATE
EVENING THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DISSIPATE AND ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINE. LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE LATE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT
DURING THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

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