Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TIMING AND COVERAGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO WILL COVER
IT WITH CB AND AMEND WHEN NECESSARY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS ALL SITES TODAY. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER
THE WARM FRONT PASSES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT COULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PD.

SALLY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010/

DISCUSSION...SFC BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE KS/OK BORDER AT 08Z. SOME ELEVATED
TSRA HAVE FORMED IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND WERE MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. H5 CLOSED LOW WAS JUST
OFF THE PACNW COAST. SW FLOW AT H5 WAS OVER KANSAS WITH A FEW WEAK
SHWVS PASSING THROUGH IN SOUTHERN KANSAS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.  WIND/TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH.  AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TSRA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE CWA AS ELEVATED
CAPES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. WITH STRONG WARMING BEHIND THE
FRONT AN EML WILL STRENGTHEN AND KEEP A LID ON ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE CAP WEAKENS AND BOTH THE NAM/GFS TARGET THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA WITH 0-1K SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AND MUCAPES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG.  THE LLJ ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 KTS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHWV PASSING THROUGH.  THAT SAID HAVE CONFINED THE
HIGHEST POPS TO THE KS/NE BORDER.  TEMPS TODAY WILL AGAIN WARM INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACNW CLOSED
LOW WILL ENTER WESTERN KS ON TUES MORNING.  WARM MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN KANAS ON TUES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON
MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE BEST TIME FOR ARRIVAL IN
THE TOP CWA LATE TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AFTER THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE H5 LOW MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 LOW IS VERY SLOW TO PASS THROUGH HAVE LEFT A
LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIP ON WED MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESS DOMINATES THE PLAINS.

SALLY

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
428 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-060930-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
428 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH TUESDAYS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
605 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010

KSZ055-051130-
OSAGE-
605 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR OSAGE COUNTY...

THROUGH 630 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BURLINGAME...
SCRANTON...CARBONDALE AND OVERBROOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010

KSZ040-055-051200-
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-
627 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DOUGLAS AND OSAGE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 700 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CLINTON...LONE
STAR...PLEASANT GROVE...VINLAND...SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND EUDORA.