Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MCS IS ONGOING...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST.
EXPECT CONDITIONS NEAR MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY
VISIBILITIES. WILL PLAY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CLEARING...AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY RETURNING FOR LATE DATE STORM
CHANCES...BUT ONLY WORTH A CB MENTION BASED ON UNCERTAINTY ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER TODAY AND COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT.

65

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS WAS MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY DAMAGING WIND REPORTS
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. IR SHOWED THAT CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIJ DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN RUSSEL AND SOUTHERN OSBORN COUNTIES. IF WINDS CAN
PENETRATE THE INVERSION THERE COULD BE SOME 60 MPH WIND REPORTS INTO
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS QLCS TO SEE IF
IT INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE RUC HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION WITH
THIS COMPLEX AND SHOWED THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT OF 0-3KM SRH OF
120-150 J/KG AND MUCAPE OF 2-2.5K J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS...TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z. THEREFORE...THE MCS
MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
OF THE CWA.

THIS MCS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. 6 HOURLY FFG IS ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA. I GAVE SOME
THOUGHT TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT MY THINKING IS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MCS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND AN OFB
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. I'M NOT SURE IF WE WILL
RECOVER FROM THE CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW IN TIME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ATTM...IT WILL
BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE FORECAST TO WHERE IN THE CWA SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP...OR THEY MAY
REDEVELOP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. IF SKIES CLEAR THE
RESULTING INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MLCAPE OF 2.5 TO 3.5K J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND 0-3KM SRH BETWEEN 150 TO 250 J/KG. ONCE
AGAIN THIS COULD ALL CHANGE AFTER THE MCS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. GIVEN SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...IF WE RECOVER AHEAD OF
THE SFC FRONT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY
THESE STORM COULD BE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOULD CONGEAL
INTO A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY
AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW WILL CAUSE A LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NE. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GARGAN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
431 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-160945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
431 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 1000 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1049 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     HAIL             SE ESKRIDGE             38.86N 96.10W
09/15/2010  E1.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY NICKEL SIZED WITH SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL MIXED
            IN.

&&

JL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1105 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ037-038-054-055-151630-
LYON-MORRIS-OSAGE-WABAUNSEE-
1105 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WABAUNSEE...MORRIS...OSAGE AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1130 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...
MORRIS...OSAGE AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED...AND
SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BURLINGAME...
SCRANTON...BUSHONG...ALLEN...ADMIRE...DUNLAP...OSAGE CITY AND
LYNDON. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 138
AND 165 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 9635 3851 9680 3866 9693 3870 9692
      3887 9585 3886 9582 3863 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 334DEG 20KT 3876 9594 3861 9682

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1110 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GLASCO                  39.36N 97.84W
09/15/2010  M2.41 INCH       CLOUD              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1132 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ037-054-055-151700-
LYON-MORRIS-OSAGE-
1132 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS...WESTERN OSAGE
AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES...

THROUGH NOON CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MORRIS...CENTRAL OSAGE AND
NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES. RADAR AND SPOTTERS INDICATED THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
AMERICUS...READING...MELVERN AND OLIVET. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 129 AND 147 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 9636 3851 9679 3857 9688 3868 9586
      3848 9560 3842 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 318DEG 20KT 3861 9583 3857 9628
          3852 9675

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ023-151800-
POTTAWATOMIE-
1225 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY...

THROUGH 100 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 50 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ONAGA AND EMMETT.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9603 3931 9660 3947 9659 3951 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 269DEG 44KT 3940 9647