Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
224 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

POTENT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ON A LINE FROM ATCHISON TO ALMA
TO HERINGTON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30
MPH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS RECEIVED AMPLE HEATING FROM THE SUN WHICH HAS AIDED
IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
ANDERSON...FRANKLIN...OSAGE...AND LYON COUNTIES. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS...NORTHERN LYON...AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS ALLOWED SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IT WILL KICKOFF A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG IN INTENSITY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW
SOME UPDRAFTS TO BECOME QUITE TALL AND DEMONSTRATE SOME ROTATION.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14 TO 15 KFT HAIL BECOMES MORE OF A
CONCERN. DRY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT MUCH WIND FROM
ANY STORM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT STORMS
FIRING ALONG OR IN FRONT OF THE BOUNDARY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SUN SETS. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN SOME AREAS DUE
TO COOL TEMPERATURES...CALM WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER DRY
AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT A CLEAR DAY WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY.

SAT/SUN/MON...FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AN
ENJOYABLE ONE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
WIND LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS THAT DAY IN THE LOW 80S AFTER A
NIGHT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND THE 50 MARK.  NW FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING AND SLOWLY INCREASES WINDS AND TEMPS TO
BRING LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.  NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT BEING ON THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT.  WILL LEAVE POPS OUT BUT COOL HIGHS ACROSS NC COUNTIES INTO THE
80S AND LEAVE EAST CENTRAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

TUESDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  GFS INDICATING IT STALLS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THINKING BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD BE A MORE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS WHICH CONTINUES THE LOWER TO
MID 80S NORTH AND NEAR 90 EAST CENTRAL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LIFT
OVER THE FRONT FROM THE LLJ ON TUESDAY NIGHT WARRANTS A CONTINUATION
OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIFTS THE FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS INCREASES POSSIBILITIES OF RIPPLES OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS
EASTERN KS IN THE SW FLOW AND KEPT POPS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY AS A RESULT. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. 67

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL ENCROACH UPON KMHK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT WILL HASTILY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN UPON ITS PASSAGE. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LAST THROUGH SUNSET THEN WILL TAPER OFF. SOME FOG CONCERNS AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR. PLENTY OF DRY AIR OFF THE SURFACE WILL MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
227 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031930-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
227 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
151 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

KSZ034-021915-
OTTAWA-
151 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

THROUGH 230 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CULVER...
BENNINGTON AND NILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3911 9793 3913 9736 3895 9736 3895 9792
      3897 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 271DEG 42KT 3901 9794

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
218 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

KSZ021-034-035-021945-
CLAY-DICKINSON-OTTAWA-
218 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN
OTTAWA AND NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 245 PM CDT...A COUPLE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 45 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHWESTERN
DICKINSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNEY SIZE HAIL. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
NILES...LONGFORD...MANCHESTER...TALMAGE AND ABILENE.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9718 3889 9714 3892 9739 3893 9738
      3894 9737 3895 9737 3895 9762 3912 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 270DEG 44KT 3901 9755

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